Lisa Marie’s Oscar Predictions For October


Really?  Oscar predictions on Halloween night?

Eh.  Why not?

Click here for my April and May and June and July and August and September predictions!

Best Picture

Hamnet

It Was Just An Accident

Jay Kelly

Marty Supreme

One Battle After Another

Sentimental Value

Sinners

The Smashing Machine

Train Dreams

Wicked For Good

Best Director

Paul Thomas Anderson for One Battle After Another

Ryan Coogler for Sinners

Benny Safdie for The Smashing Machine

Joachim Trier for Sentimental Value

Chloe Zhao for Hamnet

Best Actor

Timothee Chalamet in Marty Supreme

Joel Edgerton in Train Dreams

Ethan Hawke in Blue Moon

Dwayne Johnson in The Smashing Machine

Wagner Moura in The Secret Agent

Best Actress

Jessie Buckley in Hamnet

Cynthia Erivo in Wicked For Good

Kate Hudson in Song Sung Blue

Renate Reinsve in Sentimental Valure

Sydney Sweeney in Christy

Best Supporting Actor

Benicio del Toro in One Battle After Another

Jacob Elordi in Frankenstein

Paul Mescal in Hamnet

Adam Sandler in Jay Kelly

Stellan Skarsgard in Sentimental Value

Best Supporting Actress

Emily Blunt in The Smashing Machine

Elle Fanning in Sentimental Value

Ariana Grande in Wicked For Good

Regina Hall in One Battle After Another

Amy Madigan in Weapons

One Battle After Another Leads The Gotham Nominations


For better or worse, Awards Season started today with the announcement of the Gotham nominations.  The Gothams are supposed to honor independent films, though the line between studio and independent is now so thin that it’s sometimes difficult to tell which is which.

In the past, the Gothams honored obscure films and also low-budget films that captured the public’s imagination.  This year, they gave the majority of their nominations to One Battle After Another, a big-budget film that starred a slew of Hollywood heavyweights.  Meanwhile, Sinners, a genuinely independent feature, received one nomination.

It’s debatable how much of a precursor the Gothams are.  They’re a critic-selected award and it’s always the guild awards that serve as the best precursors.  Still, it always helps to be mentioned somewhere.

Here are the 2025 Gotham nominations!

Best Feature
Bugonia
East of Wall
Hamnet
If I Had Legs I’d Kick You
Lurker
One Battle After Another
Sorry, Baby
The Testament of Ann Lee
Train Dreams

Best Director
Mary Bronstein – If I Had Legs I’d Kick You
Jafar Panahi – It Was Just an Accident
Kelly Reichardt – The Mastermind
Paul Thomas Anderson – One Battle After Another
Oliver Laxe – Sirât

Outstanding Lead Performance
Jessie Buckley – Hamnet
Lee Byung-hun – No Other Choice
Rose Byrne – If I Had Legs I’d Kick You
Sopé Dìrísù – My Father’s Shadow
Ethan Hawke – Blue Moon
Jennifer Lawrence – Die My Love
Wagner Moura – The Secret Agent
Josh O’Connor – The Mastermind
Amanda Seyfried – The Testament of Ann Lee
Tessa Thompson – Hedda

Outstanding Supporting Performance
Benicio Del Toro – One Battle After Another
Jacob Elordi – Frankenstein
Inga Ibsdotter Lilleaas – Sentimental Value
Indya Moore – Father Mother Sister Brother
Wunmi Mosaku – Sinners
Adam Sandler – Jay Kelly
Andrew Scott – Blue Moon
Alexander Skarsgård – Pillion
Stellan Skarsgård – Sentimental Value
Teyana Taylor – One Battle After Another

Best Original Screenplay
If I Had Legs I’d Kick You
It Was Just an Accident
The Secret Agent
Sorry, Baby
Sound of Falling

Best Adapted Screenplay
No Other Choice
One Battle After Another
Pillion
Preparation for the Next Life
Train Dreams

Best International Feature
It Was Just an Accident
No Other Choice
Nouvelle Vague
Resurrection
Sound of Falling

Best Documentary Feature
2000 Meters to Andriivka
BLKNWS: Terms & Conditions
My Undesirable Friends: Part I – Last Air in Moscow
The Perfect Neighbor
Put Your Soul on Your Hand and Walk

Breakthrough Director
Constance Tsang – Blue Sun Palace
Carson Lund – Eephus
Sarah Friedland – Familiar Touch
Akinola Davies Jr. – My Father’s Shadow
Harris Dickinson – Urchin

Breakthrough Performer
A$AP Rocky – Highest 2 Lowest
Sebiye Behtiyar – Preparation for the Next Life
Chase Infiniti – One Battle After Another
Abou Sangaré – Souleymane’s Story
Tonatiuh – Kiss of the Spider Woman

Lisa Marie’s Oscar Predictions For September


As September comes to a close, the Oscar picture is clearing up a bit.  The early word on some films is very strong.  The new Paul Thomas Anderson film is being massively hyped online, though I get a Killers of the Flower Moon/Brutalist vibe from a lot of the coverage.  Meanwhile, films that were once seen as surefire contenders are falling to the wayside.

And, with that inspiring introduction out of the way, here are my predictions for September.

Click here for my April and May and June and July and August predictions!

Best Picture

Hamnet

Jay Kelly

Marty Supreme

One Battle After Another

The Secret Agent

Sentimental Value

Sinners

The Smashing Machine

Springsteen: Deliver Me From Nowhere

Wicked For Good

Best Director

Paul Thomas Anderson for One Battle After Another

Ryan Coogler for Sinners

Benny Safdie for The Smashing Machine

Joachim Trier for Sentimental Value

Chloe Zhao for Hamnet

Best Actor

Daniel Day-Lewis in Anemone

Leonard Di Caprio in One Battle After Another

Dwayne Johnson in The Smashing Machine

Wagner Moura in The Secret Agent

Jeremy Allen White in Springsteen: Deliver Me From Nowhere

Best Actress

Jessie Buckley in Hamnet

Cynthia Erivo in Wicked For Good

Jennifer Lawrence in Die My Love

Renate Reinsve in Sentimental Valure

Julia Roberts in After The Hunt

Best Supporting Actor

Paul Mescal in Hamnet

Sean Penn in One Battle After Another

Adam Sandler in Jay Kelly

Stellan Skarsgard in Sentimental Value

Jeremy Strong in Springsteen: Deliver Me From Nowhere

Best Supporting Actress

Emily Blunt in The Smashing Machine

Zooey Deutch in Nouvelle Vague

Elle Fanning in Sentimental Value

Ariana Grande in Wicked For Good

Emily Watson in Hamnet

Lisa Marie’s Way Too Early Oscar Predictions For August


As August comes to a close, the Oscar picture is clearing up a bit due to the festivals.  The early word on some films is very strong.  Meanwhile, films that were once seen as surefire contenders are falling to the wayside.

And, with that inspiring introduction out of the way, here are my predictions for August.

Click here for my April and May and June and July predictions!

Best Picture

After the Hunt

F1

Hamnet

Jay Kelly

Marty Supreme

Sentimental Value

Sinners

The Smashing Machine

Springsteen: Deliver Me From Nowhere

Wicked For Good

Best Director

Ryan Coogler for Sinners

Benny Safdie for The Smashing Machine

Josh Safdie for Marty Supreme

Joachim Trier for Sentimental Value

Chloe Zhao for Hamnet

Best Actor

Will Arnett in Is This Thing On?

Daniel Day-Lewis in Anemone

Ethan Hawke in Blue Moon

Dwayne Johnson in The Smashing Machine

Jeremy Allen White in Springsteen: Deliver Me From Nowhere

Best Actress

Jessie Buckley in Hamnet

Cynthia Erivo in Wicked For Good

Jennifer Lawrence in Die My Love

Renate Reinsve in Sentimental Valure

Julia Roberts in After The Hunt

Best Supporting Actor

Paul Mescal in Hamnet

Adam Sandler in Jay Kelly

Andrew Scott in Blue Moon

Stellan Skarsgard in Sentimental Value

Jeremy Strong in Springsteen: Deliver Me From Nowhere

Best Supporting Actress

Emily Blunt in The Smashing Machine

Zooey Deutch in Nouvelle Vague

Elle Fanning in Sentimental Value

Ariana Grande in Wicked For Good

Gwyneth Paltrow in Marty Supreme

Lisa Marie’s Way Too Early Oscar Predictions For July


As July comes to a close, the Oscar picture is still pretty fuzzy.  To be honest, it’s hard to get that excited about any of the contenders that have been mentioned.  It all pretty much sounds like more of the same, with the exception of Sinners.

Anyway, with that inspiring introduction out of the way, here are my predictions for July.

Click here for my April and May and June predictions!

Best Picture

F1

It Was Just An Accident

Jay Kelly

Nouvelle Vague

Nuremberg

The Secret Agent

Sentimental Value

Sinners

The Smashing Machine

Wicked For Good

Best Director

Jon M. Chu for Wicked For Good

Ryan Coogler for Sinners

Richard Linklater for Nouvelle Vague

Jafar Panahi for It Was Just An Accident

Joachim Trier for Sentimental Value

Best Actor

George Clooney in Jay Kelly

Dwayne Johnson in The Smashing Machine

Michael B. Jordan in Sinners

Wagner Moura in The Secret Agent

Jeremy Allen White in Deliver Me From Nowhere

Best Actress

Cynthia Erivo in Wicked For Good

Jennifer Lawrence in Die My Love

Renate Reinsve in Sentimental Valure

Julia Roberts in After The Hunt

June Squibb in Eleanor The Great

Best Supporting Actor

Miles Caton in Sinners

Russell Crowe in Nuremberg

Adam Sandler in Jay Kelly

Stellan Skarsgard in Sentimental Value

Christoph Waltz in Frankenstein

Best Supporting Actress

Emily Blunt in The Smashing Machine

Ayo Edebiri in After The Hunt

Elle Fanning in Sentimental Value

Ariana Grande in Wicked For Good

Jennifer Lopez in Kiss of the Spider Woman

Lisa Marie’s Way Too Early Oscar Predictions For June


Click here for my April and May predictions!

Best Picture

Avatar: Fire and Ash

Deliver Me From Nowhere

F1

Hamnet

It Was Just An Accident

The Secret Agent

Sentimental Value

Sinners

The Smashing Machine

Wicked For Good

Best Director

Jon M. Chu for Wicked For Good

Ryan Coogler for Sinners

Joseph Kosinski for F1

Jafar Panahi for It Was Just An Accident

Joachim Trier for Sentimental Value

Best Actor

Timothee Chalamet in Marty Supreme

Dwayne Johnson in The Smashing Machine

Michael B. Jordan in Sinners

Wagner Moura in The Secret Agent

Jeremy Allen White in Deliver Me From Nowhere

Best Actress

Cynthia Erivo in Wicked For Good

Lucy Liu in Rosemead

Renate Reinsve in Sentimental Valure

Amanda Seyfried in Ann Lee

June Squibb in Eleanor The Great

Best Supporting Actor

Miles Caton in Sinners

Colman Domingo in Michael

Paul Mescal in Hamnet

Stellan Skarsgard in Sentimental Value

Christoph Waltz in Frankenstein

Best Supporting Actress

Elle Fanning in Sentimental Value

Ariana Grande in Wicked For Good

Gabby Hofman in Deliver Me From Nowhere

Kate Hudson in Song Song Blue

Nia Long in Michael

Lisa Marie’s Way Too Early Oscar Predictions For May


We’re taking just a short break from our Eastwood-a-thon so that I can share my Oscar predictions for May.

As I say every month, don’t read too much into anything this early in the year.  I do think Sinners has a decent chance of getting nominated, despite being released early in the year.  And since Cannes has now emerged as a semi-reliable precursor, you’ll find a lot of this year’s winners mentioned below.  That said, in all probability, the actual Oscar nominations will look completely different from what’s below.  That’s part of the fun of doing monthly predictions!

I should note that Clint Eastwood is apparently working on another film.  Given how quickly he directs, he might be directing this year’s next sudden contender.

Click here for my April predictions!

Best Picture

Avatar: Fire and Ash

Deliver Me From Nowhere

F1

Hamnet

It Was Just An Accident

The Secret Agent

Sentimental Value

Sinners

The Smashing Machine

Wicked For Good

Best Director

Jon M. Chu for Wicked For Good

Ryan Coogler for Sinners

Joseph Kosinski for F1

Jafar Panahi for It Was Just An Accident

Joachim Trier for Sentimental Value

Best Actor

Timothee Chalamet in Marty Supreme

Dwayne Johnson in The Smashing Machine

Michael B. Jordan in Sinners

Wagner Moura in The Secret Agent

Jeremy Allen White in Deliver Me From Nowhere

Best Actress

Cynthia Erivo in Wicked For Good

Lucy Liu in Rosemead

Renate Reinsve in Sentimental Valure

Amanda Seyfried in Ann Lee

June Squibb in Eleanor The Great

Best Supporting Actor

Miles Caton in Sinners

Colman Domingo in Michael

Paul Mescal in Hamnet

Stellan Skarsgard in Sentimental Value

Christoph Waltz in Frankenstein

Best Supporting Actress

Elle Fanning in Sentimental Value

Ariana Grande in Wicked For Good

Gabby Hofman in Deliver Me From Nowhere

Kate Hudson in Song Song Blue

Nia Long in Michael

Trailer: Andor Season 2


The revolution starts…now.

Star Wars fans have been very critical of Disney’s stewardship of the franchise since Star Wars: The Last Jedi landed with a monumental thud with the hardcore fanbase. There hasn’t been much to celebrate anything Star Wars under Disney with a few exceptions like Star Wars: Rogue One, The Mandalorian and Skeleton Crew. One Star Wars series that drew critical acclaim from fans and critics alike was Tony Gilroy’s series looking at the origins of one of the main characters from Rogue One and that would be the series Andor.

It was series that no one really wanted since it didn’t involve any of the legacy characters. Yet, under Tony Gilroy’s masterful hands it turned into one of the best shows on Disney+ and, if I daresay, one of the best on tv the year it came out.

It’s going to be almost three years since the first season premiered and, even though the long wait could’ve been a detriment, the second season has been one of the most-anticipated by Star Wars fans. Season 2 of Andor just got it’s first trailer it fetures a very non-Star Wars’y kind of music but very appropriate considering what the season will be about.

I, for one, never thought Steve Earle’s song of rebellion, “The Revolution Starts…” would be the clarion call to start the revolution.

Andor: Season 2 is set for an April 22, 2025 release.

Bless the Maker – The Dune Part Two trailer has arrived!


The trailer for Denis Villeneuve’s Dune Part Two was just released. We’re seeing some new faces in Florence Pugh as Princess Irulan, Austin Butler as Feyd, Lea Seydoux as Lady Margot and Christopher Walken as the Padishah Emperor Shaddam IV. I like Javier Bardem’s Stilgar telling Paul to “Keep things simple.” here. So far, it’s looking good!

Dune Part Two will be released on November 3rd.

Icarus File No. 6: The Man Who Killed Don Quixote (dir by Terry Gilliam)


For many years, The Man Who Killed Don Quixote was a film best known for not having been made.

In the past, we’ve used the Icarus Files as a way to write about filmmakers who flew too close to the sun of their own ambition and who plunged down to the sea as a result.  However, in the case of The Man Who Killed Don Quixote, the sun is not director Terry Gilliam’s ambition.  Instead, the sun is a combination of shady financiers, natural disasters, and film industry silliness that seemed to all conspire to keep Gilliam from making his film.  And yet, unlike the real Icarus, Gilliam insisted on continuing to fly, regardless of how many times he crashed into the ocean.

Terry Gilliam first started to talk about adapting Migel de Cervantes’s Don Quixote into a film in the late 80s.  The tale of a Spanish nobleman who becomes convinced that he’s fighting giants when he’s actually only jousting with windmills, Don Quixote sounded like an obvious project for Gilliam.  Gilliam’s films have always dealt with the power and importance of imagination.  However, it’s often forgotten that Gilliam’s protagonists are often both saved and eventually destroyed by fantasy.  (One need only think about the end of Time Bandits, in which the young main character goes on the journey of a lifetime but then watches as his parents blow up in front of him.)  It’s easy to forget that Don Quixote dies at the end of Cervantes’s tale, having regained his sanity and having announced that his niece will be disinherited if she marries a man who has ever read a book about chivalry. 

From 1990 to 1997, Gilliam started pre-production on his version of Don Quixote several times, just for the production to be canceled.  Sometimes, this was due to Gilliam not being able to get the budget that he felt would be necessary to bring his vision to life.  Frustrated with the Hollywood studio system, Gilliam wanted to raise the money for and make his movie in Europe but this turned out to lead to a whole new set of financial and regulatory complications.

Filming finally started on the film in 2000, with Jean Rochefort playing a former film actor who thinks that he’s Don Quixote and Johnny Depp playing the director who fills the role of Sancho Panza.  Unfortunately, as shown in the poignant documentary Lost in La Mancha, the production seemed to be almost cursed from the start.  The footage from the first day of shooting was unusable, due to planes flying overhead.  The 2nd day of shooting was ruined by a flash flood that swept away much of the set.  Jean Rochefort injured himself and, despite his best efforts to act through the pain, he had to step away from the role.  Filming was suspended in 2000 and, for the next 16 years, Gilliam tried to find a way to get the stalled film started up again.  Many actors came and went, including Robert Duvall and, most promisingly, John Hurt.  Hurt agreed to play the role of Quixote but, just when it seemed that the film was finally going to go into production, Hurt passed away from pancreatic cancer.  A few months later, the original Quixote, Jean Rochefort, also passed away.  The film went back into limbo.

Finally, in 2016, a producer named Paulo Branco offered to fund the film.  Pre-production started up again, this time with Adam Driver in the Sancho Panza role and Michael Palin playing Quixote.  However, the project was soon once again stalled, as Branco wanted creative control of the film.  When Branco slashed both the budget of the film and Palin’s already reduced salary, Gilliam denounced Branco’s actions.  Branco suspended production but, by this point, Gilliam had already hooked up with another set of producers.  Jonathan Pryce replaced Michael Palin as Don Quixote and, finally, Terry Gilliam’s The Man Who Killed Don Quixote was filmed!

Once filming was complete, however, Paulo Branco popped up yet again.  Claiming that he owned the rights to the story and not Terry Gilliam, he sued to keep the film from being distributed.  The courts ruled in Branco’s favor but Gilliam countered that he hadn’t used one frame of footage that had been shot while Branco was serving as producer and that, while Branco had the rights to his version of The Man Who Killed Don Quixote, he did not have the rights to Gilliam’s.  While the lawyers argued, Amazon Studios withdrew from an agreement to distribute the film.  Once the case was finally settled, The Man Who Killed Don Quixote was finally given a haphazard release in a few countries, often in edited form.

And that’s a shame because The Man Who Killed Don Quixote is a delight.  It’s a film that is both playful and snarky, a celebration of imagination that also serves as a satire of Hollywood narcissism.  Adam Driver plays Toby Grummett, a director who returns to a Spanish village to direct an big-budget, epic adaptation of Don Quixote.  Ten years earlier, as a student filmmaker, Grummett shot a previous adaptation of Don Quixote in the same village.  When he tracks down the old shoemaker (Jonathan Pryce), who starred in his student film, he discovers that the shoemaker thinks that he is Quixote and that he’s become something of a tourist attraction.

And from there, the film follows Don Quixote as he takes Toby on a quest to fight giants and protect the helpless and to live a life of chilvary.  Along the way, Toby finds himself getting caught up in Quixote’s elaborate fantasy world.  It leads to a lot of comedy but there’s also something rather poignant about the old shoemaker’s attempts to be a hero and Toby rediscovering the love of fantasy and the imagination that he had when he was a film student.  And yet, it would be a mistake to assume that this film is simply a light-hearted fantasy.  The laughs are tinged with melancholy.  The enemies that Quixote and Toby meet are not just imaginary giants.  This a film that mixes comedy and tragedy in a way that few other films have the courage to do so.

As is typical with Gilliam’s later films, it bites off a bit more than it can chew but it’s still hard not to get caught up in it.  Driver and Pryce are both wonderfully cast and the film’s satire of the film business carries a sting to it.  Watching the film, it becomes apparent that Gilliam sees himself as being both Quixote and Toby.  The film’s ending seems to be Gilliam’s defiant message that he will always choose to fight the giants.

Previous Icarus Files:

  1. Cloud Atlas
  2. Maximum Overdrive
  3. Glass
  4. Captive State
  5. Mother!