Lisa Marie’s Oscar Predictions For November


It’s that time of the month again!

December brings us to Awards Season so the Oscar race is about to become much clearer.  Until the precursors start pouring in, here are my current predictions!

Be sure to check out my predictions for April, May, June, July, August,  September, and October!

Best Picture

Anora

Blitz

The Brutalist

Conclave

Dune Part II

Emilia Perez

Gladiator II

Saturday Night

September 5

Wicked

Best Director

Sean Baker for Anora

Edward Berger for Conclave

Jon M. Chu for Wicked

Brady Corbett for The Brutalist

Ridley Scott for Gladiator II

Best Actor

Adrien Brody in The Brutalist

Timothee Chalamet in A Complete Unknown

Daniel Craig in Queer

Colman Domingo in Sing Sing

Ralph Fiennes in Conclave

Best Actress

Pamela Anderson in The Showgirl

Cynthia Erivo in Wicked

Karla Sofia Gascon in Emila Perez

Angelina Jolie in Maria

Mickey Madison in Anora

Best Supporting Actor

Yura Borslav in Anora

Kieran Culkin in A Real Pain

Samuel L. Jackson in The Piano Lesson

Guy Pearce in The Brutalist

Denzel Washington in Gladiator II

Best Supporting Actress

Danielle Deadwyler in The Piano Lesson

Selena Gomez in Emilia Perez

Saoirse Ronan in Blitz

Isabella Rossellini in Conclave

Zoe Saldana in Emilia Perez

Lisa Marie’s Early Oscar Predictions For October


It’s that time of the month again!

While the rest of us were watching horror movies, the Oscar race was finally starting to take shape.  It’s a race that still doesn’t have any frontrunners but which does now have some definite contenders.

Be sure to check out my predictions for April, May, June, July, August, and September!

Best Picture

Anora

Blitz

The Brutalist

Conclave

Dune Part II

Emilia Perez

Gladiator II

The Piano Lesson

Saturday Night

September 5

Best Director

Jacques Audiard for Emilia Perez

Sean Baker for Anora

Edward Berger for Conclave

Brady Corbett for The Brutalist

Ridley Scott for Gladiator II

Best Actor

Adrien Brody in The Brutalist

Timothee Chalamet in A Complete Unknown

Daniel Craig in Queer

Colman Domingo in Sing Sing

Ralph Fiennes in Conclave

Best Actress

Pamela Anderson in The Showgirl

Karla Sofia Gascon in Emila Perez

Angelina Jolie in Maria

Mickey Madison in Anora

Demi Moore in The Substance

Best Supporting Actor

Yura Borslav in Anora

Kieran Culkin in A Real Pain

Samuel L. Jackson in The Piano Lesson

Guy Pearce in The Brutalist

Denzel Washington in Gladiator II

Best Supporting Actress

Danielle Deadwyler in The Piano Lesson

Selena Gomez in Emilia Perez

Saoirse Ronan in Blitz

Isabella Rossellini in Conclave

Zoe Saldana in Emilia Perez

Here Are The 2024 Gotham Nominations


Awards season began this morning, with the announcement of the Gotham nominations!

Now, to be clear, the Gotham Awards are not exactly the best precursor when it comes to predicting the Oscars.  The Gothams are designed to honor independent films and, as a result, a lot of Oscar contenders are not even eligible for the Gothams.  Dune 2, for instance, is definitely not a Gotham film.

That said, every little bit helps and, since we’ve got a whole month before the rest of precursors start weighing in, the producers of Anora have to be happy that today’s headlines have all basically been a variation of “ANORA LEADS THE GOTHAMS.”  If you’re going to build momentum on the way to the Oscars, it’s important to stay in the conversation.  Today, Anora is dominating that conversation.

Here are the Gotham nominations!

Best Feature

Anora
Sean Baker, director; Sean Baker, Alex Coco, Samantha Quan, producers (NEON)

Babygirl
Halina Reijn, director; David Hinojosa, Julia Oh, Halina Reijn, producers (A24)

Challengers
Luca Guadagnino, director; Luca Guadagnino, Rachel O’Connor, Amy Pascal, Zendaya, producers (Amazon MGM Studios)

A Different Man
Aaron Schimberg, director; Gabriel Mayers, Vanessa McDonnell, Christine Vachon, producers (A24)

Nickel Boys
RaMell Ross, director; Joslyn Barnes, Dede Gardner, Jeremy Kleiner, David Levine, producers (Orion Pictures/Amazon MGM Studios)

Best International Feature

All We Imagine as Light
Payal Kapadia, director; Julien Graff, Thomas Hakim, producers (Sideshow and Janus Films)

Green Border
Agnieszka Holland, director; Fred Bernstein, Agnieszka Holland, Marcin Wierzchoslawski, producers (Kino Lorber)

Hard Truths
Mike Leigh, director; Georgina Lowe, producer (Bleecker Street)

Inside the Yellow Cocoon Shell
Thien An Pham, director; Jeremy Chua, Tran Van Thi, producers (Kino Lorber)

Vermiglio
Maura Delpero, director; Francesca Andreoli, Maura Delpero, Santiago Fondevila Sance, Leonardo Guerra Seràgnoli, producers (Sideshow and Janus Films)

Best Documentary Feature

Dahomey
Mati Diop, director; Mati Diop, Judith Lou Lévy, Eve Robin, producers (MUBI)

Intercepted
Oksana Karpovych, director; Darya Bassel, Olha Beskhmelnytsina, Rocío B. Fuentes, Giacomo Nudi, Lucie Rego Pauline Tran Van Lieu, producers (Grasshopper Film)

No Other Land
Yuval Abraham, Basel Adra, Hamdan Ballal, Rachel Szor, directors; Fabien Greenberg, Bård Kjøge Rønning, producers (Antipode Films)

Soundtrack to a Coup d’Etat
Johan Grimonprez, director; Rémi Grellety, Daan Milius, producers (Kino Lorber)

Sugarcane
Julian Brave NoiseCat, Emily Kassie, directors; Emily Kassie, Kellen Quinn, producers (National Geographic Documentary Films)

Union
Stephen Maing, Brett Story, directors; Samantha Curley, Mars Verrone, producers (Self-Distributed)

Best Director

Payal Kapadia, All We Imagine as Light (Sideshow and Janus Films)
Sean Baker, Anora (NEON)
Guan Hu, Black Dog (The Forge)
Jane Schoenbrun, I Saw the TV Glow (A24)
RaMell Ross, Nickel Boys (Orion Pictures/Amazon MGM Studios)

Best Screenplay

Between the Temples, Nathan Silver, C. Mason Wells (Sony Pictures Classics)
Evil Does Not Exist, Ryûsuke Hamaguchi (Sideshow and Janus Films)
Femme, Sam H. Freeman, Ng Choon Ping (Utopia)
His Three Daughters, Azazel Jacobs (Netflix)
Janet Planet, Annie Baker (A24)

Breakthrough Director

Shuchi Talati, Girls Will Be Girls (Juno Films, Inc)
India Donaldson, Good One (Metrograph Pictures)
Alessandra Lacorazza, In the Summers (Music Box Films)
Vera Drew, The People’s Joker (Altered Innocence)
Mahdi Fleifel, To a Land Unknown (Watermelon Pictures)

Outstanding Lead Performance

Pamela Anderson, The Last Showgirl (Roadside Attractions)
Adrien Brody, The Brutalist (A24)
Colman Domingo, Sing Sing (A24)
Marianne Jean-Baptiste, Hard Truths (Bleecker Street)
Nicole Kidman, Babygirl (A24)
Keith Kupferer, Ghostlight (IFC Films)
Mikey Madison, Anora (NEON)
Demi Moore, The Substance (MUBI)
Saoirse Ronan, Outrun (Sony Pictures Classics)
Justice Smith, I Saw the TV Glow (A24)

Outstanding Supporting Performance

Yura Borisov, Anora (NEON)
Kieran Culkin, A Real Pain (Searchlight Pictures)
Danielle Deadwyler, The Piano Lesson (Netflix)
Brigette Lundy-Paine, I Saw the TV Glow (A24)
Natasha Lyonne, His Three Daughters (Netflix)
Clarence Maclin, Sing Sing (A24)
Katy O’Brian, Love Lies Bleeding (A24)
Guy Pearce, The Brutalist (A24)
Adam Pearson, A Different Man (A24)
Brian Tyree Henry, The Fire Inside (Amazon MGM Studios)

Breakthrough Performer

Lily Collias, Good One (Metrograph Pictures)
Ryan Destiny, The Fire Inside (Amazon MGM Studios)
Maisy Stella, My Old Ass (Amazon MGM Studios)
Izaac Wang, Dìdi Y(Focus Features)
Brandon Wilson, Nickel Boys (Orion Pictures/Amazon MGM Studios)

Lisa Marie’s Early Oscar Predictions For September


It’s that time of the month again!

It’s time for me to share my latest round of Oscar predictions.  Thanks to the summer festival season, the Oscar race is starting to become a bit clearer.  That said, there really don’t seem to be any overwhelming favorites right now.  There are contenders but there are no front runners.  So, I imagine we’ll see some surprise contenders emerge as the precursor season approaches.

You’ll notice that, unlike a lot of Oscar bloggers, I don’t have Gladiator II amongst my predictions.  That’s based on the fact that, every year, there’s a new Ridley Scott film that everyone predicts will be a contender and, with the exception of The Martian, it never happens.  The Academy just does not seem to have the burning desire to honor Ridley Scott that a lot of film bloggers do.  As well,  I’m just not convinced that a sequel starring an actor who has yet to prove he can shoulder the weight of a blockbuster is going to be the film that’s going to win Ridley Scott a Best Director statuette.  Remember that a few years ago, those same Oscar bloggers were insisting that Martin Scorsese’s Silence was going to be not only a contender but also the winner up until the end of November.

(For that matter, let’s not forget that Scorsese’s Killers of the Flower Moon was expected to be a winner as opposed to an also-ran.  Fact of the matter is that, as much as I hate to resort to that overused quote from William Goldman, no one knows anything.)

Do I really think that Pamela Anderson is going to receive a Best Actress nomination?  She’s receiving a lot of acclaim for her role in The Showgirl but, at the same time, she’s Pamela Anderson.  There’s maybe a 2% chance that she’ll get nominated but I always like to throw in a few candidates who go against the conventional wisdom.  So — what the Hell?  Why not?  Pamela Anderson for Best Actress!

Be sure to check out my predictions for April, May, June, July, and August!

Best Picture

Anora

The Apprentice

The Brutalist

A Complete Unknown

Dune Part Two

Emilia Perez

Maria

The Piano Lesson

Saturday Night

Sing Sing

Best Director

Jacques Audiard for Emilia Perez

Sean Baker for Anora

Brady Corbett for The Brutalist

Jason Reitman for Saturday Night

Denis Villeneuve for Dune Part Two

Best Actor

Adrien Brody in The Brutalist

Timothee Chalamet in A Complete Unknown

Daniel Craig in Queer

Colman Domingo in Sing Sing

Ralph Fiennes in Conclave

Best Actress

Pamela Anderson in The Showgirl

Karla Sofia Gascon in Emila Perez

Angelina Jolie in Maria

Mickey Madison in Anora

Demi Moore in The Substance

Best Supporting Actor

Yura Borslav in Anora

Kieran Culkin in A Real Pain

Samuel L. Jackson in The Piano Lesson

Guy Pearce in The Brutalist

Jeremy Strong in The Apprentice

Best Supporting Actress

Monica Barbaro in A Complete Unknown

Danielle Deadwyler in The Piano Lesson

Selena Gomez in Emilia Perez

Felicity Jones in The Brutalist

Zoe Saldana in Emilia Perez

Lisa Marie’s Early Oscar Predictions For August!


  You can check out my predictions for April by clicking hereAnd then check out my predictions for May!  And June as wellAnd July!

Best Picture

Anora

Blitz

Didi

Dune Part 2

Emilia Perez

Gladiator II

Maria

A Real Pain

Sing Sing

The Substance

Best Director

Jacques Audiard for Emilia Perez

Sean Baker for Anora

Pablo Larrain for Maria

Steve McQueen for Blitz

Denis Villeneuve for Dune Part 2

Best Actor

Jesse Eisenberg in A Real Pain

Andre Holland in The Actor

Daniel Craig in Queer

Barry Keoghan in Bird

Jesse Plemons in Kinds of Kindness

Best Actress

Ryan Destiny in The Fire Inside

Cynthia Erivo in Wicked

Angelina Jolie in Maria

Mikey Madison in Anora

Demi Moore In The Substance

Best Supporting Actor

Kieran Culkin in A Real Pain

Brian Tyree Henry in The Fire Inside

Samuel L. Jackson in The Piano Lesson

Paul Raci in Sing Sing

Denzel Washington in Gladiator II

Best Supporting Actress

Joan Chen in Didi

Toni Collette in Juror #2

Julianne Moore in The Room Next Door

Saoirse Ronan in Blitz

Zoe Saldana in Emilia Perez

Lisa Marie’s Way Too Early Oscar Predictions For July


  You can check out my predictions for April by clicking hereAnd then check out my predictions for May!  And June as well!

Best Picture

Anora

Blitz

Didi

Dune Part 2

Emilia Perez

The Fire Inside

Gladiator II

Inside Out 2

A Real Pain

Sing Sing

Best Director

Jacques Audiard for Emilia Perez

Sean Baker for Anora

Steve McQueen for Blitz

Rachel Morrison for The Fire Inside

Denis Villeneuve for Dune Part 2

Best Actor

Jesse Eisenberg in A Real Pain

Andre Holland in The Actor

Daniel Craig in Queer

Barry Keoghan in Bird

Jesse Plemons in Kinds of Kindness

Best Actress

Ryan Destiny in The Fire Inside

Cynthia Erivo in Wicked

Angelina Jolie in Maria

Mikey Madison in Anora

Demi Moore In The Substance

Best Supporting Actor

Kieran Culkin in A Real Pain

Brian Tyree Henry in The Fire Inside

Samuel L. Jackson in The Piano Lesson

Paul Raci in Sing Sing

Denzel Washington in Gladiator II

Best Supporting Actress

Joan Chen in Didi

Toni Collette in Juror #2

Julianne Moore in The Room Next Door

Saoirse Ronan in Blitz

Zoe Saldana in Emilia Perez

Lisa Marie’s Way Too Early Oscar Predictions For June


This has not been an easy month and I’ve fallen behind in my movie-watching and also my news-reading.  So, take the predictions below with many grains of salt.  That said, it is the end of the month and it’s time for my monthly Oscar predictions!

What will happen when the nominations are announced in 2025?  Who knows?  For now, let’s just have fun guessing.  You can check out my predictions for April by clicking hereAnd then check out my predictions for May!

Best Picture

Anora

Blitz

Didi

Dune Part 2

Emilia Perez

The Fire Inside

Gladiator II

Inside Out 2

A Real Pain

Sing Sing

Best Director

Jacques Audiard for Emilia Perez

Sean Baker for Anora

Steve McQueen for Blitz

Rachel Morrison for The Fire Inside

Denis Villeneuve for Dune Part 2

Best Actor

Jesse Eisenberg in A Real Pain

Andre Holland in The Actor

Daniel Craig in Queer

Barry Keoghan in Bird

Jesse Plemons in Kinds of Kindness

Best Actress

Ryan Destiny in The Fire Inside

Cynthia Erivo in Wicked

Angelina Jolie in Maria

Mikey Madison in Anora

Demi Moore In The Substance

Best Supporting Actor

Kieran Culkin in A Real Pain

Brian Tyree Henry in The Fire Inside

Samuel L. Jackson in The Piano Lesson

Paul Raci in Sing Sing

Denzel Washington in Gladiator II

Best Supporting Actress

Joan Chen in Didi

Toni Collette in Juror #2

Julianne Moore in The Room Next Door

Saoirse Ronan in Blitz

Zoe Saldana in Emilia Perez

Lisa Marie’s Way Too Early Oscar Predictions For May


We’re nearly halfway through the year and so far, we have two films that seem like they might still be in the Oscar conversation at the end of the year, Dune 2 and Civil War.  With the Cannes Film Festival coming up this month, we should soon have some more contenders to consider.

My predictions below are a bit heavy on sequels.  In fact, if the predictions below came true, it would a record year for sequels at the Oscars.  Of course, it’s early and it’s totally probable that the majority of the films listed below will not be nominated.  Right now, it’s pretty much a guessing game.  The production delays caused by last year’s strikes have opened the door for a lot of sequels to receive consideration that they might not receive in other years.

What will happen when the nominations are announced in 2025?  Who knows?  For now, let’s just have fun guessing.  You can check out my predictions for April by clicking here.

Best Picture

The Apprentice

The Bikeriders

Blitz

Civil War

Dune, Part II

Furiosa: A Mad Max Saga

Gladiator 2

Inside Out 2

Kingdom of the Planet of the Apes

SNL: 1975

Best Director

Ali Abassi for The Apprentice

Alex Garland for Civil War

Steve McQueen for Blitz

George Miller for Furiousa: A Mad Max Saga

Ridley Scott for Gladiator 2

Best Actor

Austin Butler in The Bikeriders

Daniel Craig in Queer

Richard Gere in Oh, Canada

Paul Mescal in Gladiator 2

Glen Powell in Hit Man

Best Actress

Jodie Comer in The Bikeriders

Ryan Destiny in The Fire Inside

Noemie Merlant in Emmanuelle

Anya Taylor-Joy in Furiosa

Zendaya in Challengers

Best Supporting Actor

Kieran Culkin in A Real Pain

Tom Hardy in The Bikeriders

Samuel L. Jackson in The Piano Lesson

Jeremy Strong in The Apprentice

Denzel Washington in Gladiator 2

Best Supporting Actress

Joan Chen in Didi

Danielle Deadwyler in The Piano Lesson

Connie Nielsen in Gladiator 2

Saoirse Ronan in Blitz

Rachel Sennot in SNL: 1975

Lisa Marie’s Way Too Early Oscar Predictions For April


Now that the 2023 Oscars are over with, it’s time to move on to the 2024 Oscars!

Needless to say, there’s probably nothing more pointless than trying to guess which films are going to be nominated a year from now.  I can’t even guarantee that all of the films listed below are even going to be released this year.  And, even if they are released this year, I can’t guarantee that they’ll actually be any good or that the Academy will show any interest in them.  Sundance was a bit low-key this year.  Dune Part II seems like a contender but will it be remembered 9 months from now?  Whereas last year started out with everyone waiting for Oppenheimer and Killers of the Flower Moon, this year feels far different as Hollywood, still recovering from last year’s strikes, tries to catch up.  As many will say over the months to come, no one knows anything.  As much as I hate quoting William Goldman (because, seriously, quoting Goldman on a film site is such a cliché at this point), Goldman was right.

In other words, there’s no real science to these predictions.  It’s too early in the year to do anything but guess.  And for now, these are my guesses.  A year from now, they’ll be good for either bragging rights or a laugh.  Hopefully, they’ll be good for both.

Best Picture

The Apprentice

The Bikeriders

Blitz

Didi

Dune, Part II

Emmanuelle

The Fire Inside

Here

Hit Man

SNL: 1975

Best Director

Ali Abassi for The Apprentice

Richard Linklater for Hit Man

Steve McQueen for Blitz

Rachel Morrison for The Fire Inside

Denis Villeneuve for Dune Part II

Best Actor

Austin Butler in The Bikeriders

Daniel Craig in Queer

Richard Gere in Oh, Canada

Andre Holland in The Actor

Glen Powell in Hit Man

Best Actress

Adria Arjona in Hit Man

Jodie Comer in The Bikeriders

Ryan Destiny in The Fire Inside

Cynthia Erivo in Wicked

Jessica Lange in Long Day’s Journey Into Night

Best Supporting Actor

Kieran Culkin in A Real Pain

Tom Hardy in The Bikeriders

Samuel L. Jackson in The Piano Lesson

Jeremy Strong in The Apprentice

Anthony Wong in Emmanuelle

Best Supporting Actress

Joan Chen in Didi

Danielle Deadwyler in The Piano Lesson

Saoirse Ronan in Blitz

Rachel Sennot in SNL: 1975

Naomi Watts in Emmanuelle

Back to School #70: Lymelife (dir by Derick Martini)


Lymelife_ver2

Lymelife is an odd but occasionally effective indie film from 2008.  Taking place in 1979, the film tells the story of two brothers living on Long Island.  The older brother, Jimmy Bartlett (Kieran Culkin) has recently graduated from high school and is preparing to enter the army.  (We hear that he’s going to be shipped off to fight in a war against Argentina, which is odd because, to the best of my knowledge, the U.S. has never been at war with Argentina.)  The younger brother is 15 year-old Scott (Rory Culkin), a gentle boy who loves Star Wars and who is doted on by his overprotective mother, Brenda (Jill Hennessy).  Scott’s relationship with his father, Mickey (Alec Baldwin), is far less positive with Mickey feeling that his youngest son is weak and Scott resenting the fact that Mickey is always cheating on Brenda.

As the film opens, a recent outbreak of Lyme Disease has got everyone in a panic.  Brenda, in particular, is terrified that Scott is going to get bitten by a tick and refuses to let him go outside unless every inch of his skin is covered and protected.  Causing Brenda even more panic is the fact that their neighbor, Charlie Bragg (Timothy Hutton), has contracted the disease and has lost his job as a result.  Now, he spends all of his time either outside trying to hunt deer or hiding down in his basement.  His wife (Cynthia Nixon) is forced to take a job from Mickey in order to support the family and soon, she and Mickey are having an affair.

In fact, the only person who doesn’t completely shun Charlie is Scott, though this is largely because Scott has, for years, had a crush on Charlie’s daughter, Adrianna (Emma Roberts).  Adrianna finally starts to return Scott’s affection but then Charlie discovers the truth about his wife’s job with Mickey and things … well, things do not end happily.

Lymelife is a strange film, one that at times almost plays like a parody of a typical indie film.  This is one of those films where a lot of things happen but you’re not always quite sure why they happened and ultimately, it’s hard not to feel like the film is essentially a collection of loosely related scenes, all looking for a stronger narrative.   But, with all that in mind, I still like Lymelife.  Director Derik Martini brings such an intense and humanistic touch to the film’s dangerously quirky storyline and it’s such an obviously personal film that it becomes fascinating in its own way.  Not surprisingly, both Alec Baldwin and Jill Hennessy overact in their roles (and considering that they have the most melodramatic lines, that’s not always a good thing) but, fortunately, Timothy Hutton, Emma Roberts, and the Culkin Brothers all give excellent performances.

Plus, the film’s ending is absolutely haunting, largely because of the wise use of the song Running Out Of Empty, which can be heard below.