Lisa Marie’s Way Too Early Oscar Predictions For May


We’re taking just a short break from our Eastwood-a-thon so that I can share my Oscar predictions for May.

As I say every month, don’t read too much into anything this early in the year.  I do think Sinners has a decent chance of getting nominated, despite being released early in the year.  And since Cannes has now emerged as a semi-reliable precursor, you’ll find a lot of this year’s winners mentioned below.  That said, in all probability, the actual Oscar nominations will look completely different from what’s below.  That’s part of the fun of doing monthly predictions!

I should note that Clint Eastwood is apparently working on another film.  Given how quickly he directs, he might be directing this year’s next sudden contender.

Click here for my April predictions!

Best Picture

Avatar: Fire and Ash

Deliver Me From Nowhere

F1

Hamnet

It Was Just An Accident

The Secret Agent

Sentimental Value

Sinners

The Smashing Machine

Wicked For Good

Best Director

Jon M. Chu for Wicked For Good

Ryan Coogler for Sinners

Joseph Kosinski for F1

Jafar Panahi for It Was Just An Accident

Joachim Trier for Sentimental Value

Best Actor

Timothee Chalamet in Marty Supreme

Dwayne Johnson in The Smashing Machine

Michael B. Jordan in Sinners

Wagner Moura in The Secret Agent

Jeremy Allen White in Deliver Me From Nowhere

Best Actress

Cynthia Erivo in Wicked For Good

Lucy Liu in Rosemead

Renate Reinsve in Sentimental Valure

Amanda Seyfried in Ann Lee

June Squibb in Eleanor The Great

Best Supporting Actor

Miles Caton in Sinners

Colman Domingo in Michael

Paul Mescal in Hamnet

Stellan Skarsgard in Sentimental Value

Christoph Waltz in Frankenstein

Best Supporting Actress

Elle Fanning in Sentimental Value

Ariana Grande in Wicked For Good

Gabby Hofman in Deliver Me From Nowhere

Kate Hudson in Song Song Blue

Nia Long in Michael

Here’s What Won At Cannes


Here’s what won at this year’s Cannes Film Festival.  As the Academy’s membership has become more international, Cannes has been transformed into an Oscar precursor over the past few years.  Time will tell if that’s the case this year.  (Of the film’s that did win this year, The Secret Agent sounds like the most Oscar-friendly)

Palme d’Or
Jafar Panahi for It Was Just an Accident

Grand Prix
Joachim Trier for Sentimental Value

Jury Prize
Mascha Schilinski for Sound of Falling and Oliver Laxe for Sirat (tie)

Best Director
Kleber Mendonça Filho for The Secret Agent

Best Screenplay
Jean-Pierre and Luc Dardenne for Young Mothers

Best Actress
Nadia Melliti for The Little Sister

Best Actor
Wagner Moura for The Secret Agent

Special Prize
Resurrection, dir. Bi Gan

Camera d’Or for Best First Film
The President’s Cake, dir: Hassan Hadi

Palme d’Or for Best Short Film
I’m Glad You’re Dead Now, dir: Tawfeek Barhom

The Things You Find On Netflix: Sergio (dir by Greg Barker)


Sergio, which dropped on Netflix last Friday, is a biopic of the Brazilian diplomat, Sérgio Vieira de Mello.  Sergio spent 34 years as a diplomat with the United Nations, going to some of the most dangerous places in the world and trying to negotiate with people who were determined to kill one another.  Sergio was so respected within the UN that he was seen as a likely candidate for Secretary-General.  Instead, in 2003, Sergio was killed in a terrorist attack while he was in Baghdad, observing the American occupation of Iraq.

Starring Wagner Moura in the title role, Sergio opens with Sergio arriving in Baghdad.  For the majority of the film, he’s buried in the rubble of his blown-up office, thinking about his past life while an American soldier (played, with quiet authority, by Garret Dillahunt) tries to dig him and his assistant, Gil (Brian F. O’Byrne) out.  Through the use of flashbacks, we watch as Sergio negotiates peace in East Timor and argues against the occupation of the Iraq.  We also watch as he meets and falls in love with Carolina (Ana de Armas), pursuing a passionate affair with her despite being married.

Sergio is a rather staid biopic.  If you’re expecting to see an Adam McKay-style screed about international diplomacy and American war crimes, that is not what this film is and we should be happy for that because, seriously, have you tried to watch The Big Short or Vice lately?  Instead, Sergio is more like a Jay Roach film without the attempts at humor.  It’s a blandly liberal biopic that is conventionally structured and a bit too convinced that the audience is going to automatically agree with its points.  Indeed, one of the film’s most glaring flaws is that it assumes that we’re all as enamored with the UN as it is.  Instead of making a case for why the UN should be taken seriously, Sergio just assumes that it is.

The other big problem with the film is that it’s just boring.  There’s nothing interesting about the film’s structure and, as portrayed in the rather bland script, both Sergio and Carolina come across as being ciphers.  We’re constantly told that Sergio is charismatic and controversial but we really don’t see much evidence of it.  The film itself doesn’t seem to know what made Sergio tick but what’s even worse is that it doesn’t seem to be particularly interested in finding out.  There’s not much interest in digging into Sergio’s mind or his motives,  The film forgets that you can portray someone as a hero and celebrate their accomplishments without necessarily idealizing them.  With the exception of one or two scenes (and there is an effective moment where one of Sergio’s assistants does call him out for putting everyone’s life in danger by refusing to accept protection from the U.S. army), Sergio is portrayed in such an idealized that he comes across as being a bit dull.  Wagner Moura is an appealing actor but there’s no depth to his performance.  Meanwhile, Ana de Armas is reduced to playing the stock girlfriend with a social conscience role.

All that said, I almost feel guilty about not liking Sergio.  The film was made with good intentions but good intentions don’t necessarily translate to compelling storytelling.

 

Trailer: Elysium (2nd Official)


Elysium

I know it’s been done and written for what seems like hundreds of times that Neill Blomkamp was given the chance to direct a planned live-action film adaptation of the highly popular video game franchise Halo. Seeing how his directorial full-feature debut with District 9 proved that Peter Jackson was correct in trying to give the mega-budgeted project to the young South African, but also set Blomkamp as filmmaker who had given himself that rare commodity in Hollywood: the ability to pick and choose his next projects.

He could easily have taken the money and accolades from that first film and taken the first major action project sent his way, but Blomkamp took that rare commodity and decided to do another sci-fi film that combined not just his flair for action and gritty sci-fi visuals, but what looks to be his storytelling style of using current sociological problems (immigration, class divide, etc…for his latest film) as themes for his film.

Elysium arrives with a new trailer from TriStar Pictures and it’s parent company Sony Pictures. The first trailer gave a taste of the ideas that drive the film’s plot. This second (and much longer trailer) gives us a much more detailed look into the film’s three main characters played by Matt Damon, Jodie Foster and Sharlto Copley. It also gives us a longer look at the two contrasting art designs for society on Earth and that on Elysium.

Oh, did I also mention that the trailer almost makes it seem that it could be a trailer-run for any future Mass Effect live-action film. I saw more than one instance of what could be the use of “biotics” in the trailer by Sharlto Copley’s Kruger character.

Elysium is set to arrive in theaters on August 9, 2013 in both regular and IMAX screens.

Trailer: Elysium (Official)


Elysium

It’s not often that a filmmaker makes such a major splash in the industry with their initial full-length film becoming not just a commercial success but one which gained widespread critical-acclaim. South African filmmaker Neill Blomkamp is one such filmmaker. Initially tapped by Peter Jackson to direct the planned HALO film adaptation Blomkamp ended up doing District 9 (based off of his own short film Alive in Joburg).

The film became the sensation of San Diego Comic-Con 2009 which raised the hype for it’s inevitable release a month later. It’s now been 4 years since District 9 and we finally get a chance to see the first official trailer (a 10-minute film reel was shown to invited industry and press which showed a bit more of what the film will be about) for Blomkamp’s much awaited follow-up to his hit first film.

Elysium looks to continue Blomkamp’s attempt to bring social awareness to the scifi genre and do so with a mixture of real-world gritty realism and scifi fantasy. just looking at the trailer the space station Elysium where all the rich and privilege live in a paradise-setting look like an amalgam of the HALO ringworlds and the Citadel Station from Mass Effect.

It’s still months away, but just this teaser of a trailer has just raised Elysium to the top of my list for most awaited films of 2013. If it’s as good or better than District 9 then Blomkamp will cement himself as one of his generation’s best instead of a flash in the pan like so many of his contemporaries.

Elysium is set for a wide release date of August 9, 2013.