Lisa Marie’s Oscar Predictions For November


I guess the question right now is whether or not Wicked: For Good will receive a Best Picture nomination.  Tradition would seem to dictate that, like The Lord of the Rings films and the Dune films, Wicked: For Good would get a nomination to go along with the first part of the story.  However, the reviews of Wicked: For Good have not been particularly good.

That said, those reviews have not had much effect when it comes to the film’s box office.  And that’s why I think, despite bad reviews, Wicked: For Good will be nominated.  I don’t think it’s going be quite the Oscar powerhouse that some were expecting but it will still, at the very least, be nominated.  It’s too big to fail at this point.

Here are my review for November.  Click here for my April and May and June and July and August and September and October predictions!

Best Picture

Avatar: Fire and Ash

Frankenstein

Hamnet

Jay Kelly

Marty Supreme

One Battle After Another

Sentimental Value

Sinners

Train Dreams

Wicked For Good

Best Director

Paul Thomas Anderson for One Battle After Another

Ryan Coogler for Sinners

Josh Safie for Marty Supreme

Joachim Trier for Sentimental Value

Chloe Zhao for Hamnet

Best Actor

Timothee Chalamet in Marty Supreme

George Clooney in Jay Kelly

Joel Edgerton in Train Dreams

Ethan Hawke in Blue Moon

Wagner Moura in The Secret Agent

Best Actress

Jessie Buckley in Hamnet

Cynthia Erivo in Wicked For Good

Kate Hudson in Song Sung Blue

Renate Reinsve in Sentimental Valure

Amanda Seyfried in The Testament of Ann Lee

Best Supporting Actor

Benicio del Toro in One Battle After Another

Paul Mescal in Hamnet

Sean Penn in One Battle After Another

Adam Sandler in Jay Kelly

Stellan Skarsgard in Sentimental Value

Best Supporting Actress

Elle Fanning in Sentimental Value

Ariana Grande in Wicked For Good

Regina Hall in One Battle After Another

Inga Ibsdotter Lilleaas in Sentimental Value

Amy Madigan in Weapons

Lisa Marie’s Oscar Predictions For October


Really?  Oscar predictions on Halloween night?

Eh.  Why not?

Click here for my April and May and June and July and August and September predictions!

Best Picture

Hamnet

It Was Just An Accident

Jay Kelly

Marty Supreme

One Battle After Another

Sentimental Value

Sinners

The Smashing Machine

Train Dreams

Wicked For Good

Best Director

Paul Thomas Anderson for One Battle After Another

Ryan Coogler for Sinners

Benny Safdie for The Smashing Machine

Joachim Trier for Sentimental Value

Chloe Zhao for Hamnet

Best Actor

Timothee Chalamet in Marty Supreme

Joel Edgerton in Train Dreams

Ethan Hawke in Blue Moon

Dwayne Johnson in The Smashing Machine

Wagner Moura in The Secret Agent

Best Actress

Jessie Buckley in Hamnet

Cynthia Erivo in Wicked For Good

Kate Hudson in Song Sung Blue

Renate Reinsve in Sentimental Valure

Sydney Sweeney in Christy

Best Supporting Actor

Benicio del Toro in One Battle After Another

Jacob Elordi in Frankenstein

Paul Mescal in Hamnet

Adam Sandler in Jay Kelly

Stellan Skarsgard in Sentimental Value

Best Supporting Actress

Emily Blunt in The Smashing Machine

Elle Fanning in Sentimental Value

Ariana Grande in Wicked For Good

Regina Hall in One Battle After Another

Amy Madigan in Weapons

Lisa Marie’s Oscar Predictions For September


As September comes to a close, the Oscar picture is clearing up a bit.  The early word on some films is very strong.  The new Paul Thomas Anderson film is being massively hyped online, though I get a Killers of the Flower Moon/Brutalist vibe from a lot of the coverage.  Meanwhile, films that were once seen as surefire contenders are falling to the wayside.

And, with that inspiring introduction out of the way, here are my predictions for September.

Click here for my April and May and June and July and August predictions!

Best Picture

Hamnet

Jay Kelly

Marty Supreme

One Battle After Another

The Secret Agent

Sentimental Value

Sinners

The Smashing Machine

Springsteen: Deliver Me From Nowhere

Wicked For Good

Best Director

Paul Thomas Anderson for One Battle After Another

Ryan Coogler for Sinners

Benny Safdie for The Smashing Machine

Joachim Trier for Sentimental Value

Chloe Zhao for Hamnet

Best Actor

Daniel Day-Lewis in Anemone

Leonard Di Caprio in One Battle After Another

Dwayne Johnson in The Smashing Machine

Wagner Moura in The Secret Agent

Jeremy Allen White in Springsteen: Deliver Me From Nowhere

Best Actress

Jessie Buckley in Hamnet

Cynthia Erivo in Wicked For Good

Jennifer Lawrence in Die My Love

Renate Reinsve in Sentimental Valure

Julia Roberts in After The Hunt

Best Supporting Actor

Paul Mescal in Hamnet

Sean Penn in One Battle After Another

Adam Sandler in Jay Kelly

Stellan Skarsgard in Sentimental Value

Jeremy Strong in Springsteen: Deliver Me From Nowhere

Best Supporting Actress

Emily Blunt in The Smashing Machine

Zooey Deutch in Nouvelle Vague

Elle Fanning in Sentimental Value

Ariana Grande in Wicked For Good

Emily Watson in Hamnet

Lisa Marie’s Way Too Early Oscar Predictions For August


As August comes to a close, the Oscar picture is clearing up a bit due to the festivals.  The early word on some films is very strong.  Meanwhile, films that were once seen as surefire contenders are falling to the wayside.

And, with that inspiring introduction out of the way, here are my predictions for August.

Click here for my April and May and June and July predictions!

Best Picture

After the Hunt

F1

Hamnet

Jay Kelly

Marty Supreme

Sentimental Value

Sinners

The Smashing Machine

Springsteen: Deliver Me From Nowhere

Wicked For Good

Best Director

Ryan Coogler for Sinners

Benny Safdie for The Smashing Machine

Josh Safdie for Marty Supreme

Joachim Trier for Sentimental Value

Chloe Zhao for Hamnet

Best Actor

Will Arnett in Is This Thing On?

Daniel Day-Lewis in Anemone

Ethan Hawke in Blue Moon

Dwayne Johnson in The Smashing Machine

Jeremy Allen White in Springsteen: Deliver Me From Nowhere

Best Actress

Jessie Buckley in Hamnet

Cynthia Erivo in Wicked For Good

Jennifer Lawrence in Die My Love

Renate Reinsve in Sentimental Valure

Julia Roberts in After The Hunt

Best Supporting Actor

Paul Mescal in Hamnet

Adam Sandler in Jay Kelly

Andrew Scott in Blue Moon

Stellan Skarsgard in Sentimental Value

Jeremy Strong in Springsteen: Deliver Me From Nowhere

Best Supporting Actress

Emily Blunt in The Smashing Machine

Zooey Deutch in Nouvelle Vague

Elle Fanning in Sentimental Value

Ariana Grande in Wicked For Good

Gwyneth Paltrow in Marty Supreme

Lisa Marie’s Way Too Early Oscar Predictions For July


As July comes to a close, the Oscar picture is still pretty fuzzy.  To be honest, it’s hard to get that excited about any of the contenders that have been mentioned.  It all pretty much sounds like more of the same, with the exception of Sinners.

Anyway, with that inspiring introduction out of the way, here are my predictions for July.

Click here for my April and May and June predictions!

Best Picture

F1

It Was Just An Accident

Jay Kelly

Nouvelle Vague

Nuremberg

The Secret Agent

Sentimental Value

Sinners

The Smashing Machine

Wicked For Good

Best Director

Jon M. Chu for Wicked For Good

Ryan Coogler for Sinners

Richard Linklater for Nouvelle Vague

Jafar Panahi for It Was Just An Accident

Joachim Trier for Sentimental Value

Best Actor

George Clooney in Jay Kelly

Dwayne Johnson in The Smashing Machine

Michael B. Jordan in Sinners

Wagner Moura in The Secret Agent

Jeremy Allen White in Deliver Me From Nowhere

Best Actress

Cynthia Erivo in Wicked For Good

Jennifer Lawrence in Die My Love

Renate Reinsve in Sentimental Valure

Julia Roberts in After The Hunt

June Squibb in Eleanor The Great

Best Supporting Actor

Miles Caton in Sinners

Russell Crowe in Nuremberg

Adam Sandler in Jay Kelly

Stellan Skarsgard in Sentimental Value

Christoph Waltz in Frankenstein

Best Supporting Actress

Emily Blunt in The Smashing Machine

Ayo Edebiri in After The Hunt

Elle Fanning in Sentimental Value

Ariana Grande in Wicked For Good

Jennifer Lopez in Kiss of the Spider Woman

Lisa Marie’s Way Too Early Oscar Predictions For June


Click here for my April and May predictions!

Best Picture

Avatar: Fire and Ash

Deliver Me From Nowhere

F1

Hamnet

It Was Just An Accident

The Secret Agent

Sentimental Value

Sinners

The Smashing Machine

Wicked For Good

Best Director

Jon M. Chu for Wicked For Good

Ryan Coogler for Sinners

Joseph Kosinski for F1

Jafar Panahi for It Was Just An Accident

Joachim Trier for Sentimental Value

Best Actor

Timothee Chalamet in Marty Supreme

Dwayne Johnson in The Smashing Machine

Michael B. Jordan in Sinners

Wagner Moura in The Secret Agent

Jeremy Allen White in Deliver Me From Nowhere

Best Actress

Cynthia Erivo in Wicked For Good

Lucy Liu in Rosemead

Renate Reinsve in Sentimental Valure

Amanda Seyfried in Ann Lee

June Squibb in Eleanor The Great

Best Supporting Actor

Miles Caton in Sinners

Colman Domingo in Michael

Paul Mescal in Hamnet

Stellan Skarsgard in Sentimental Value

Christoph Waltz in Frankenstein

Best Supporting Actress

Elle Fanning in Sentimental Value

Ariana Grande in Wicked For Good

Gabby Hofman in Deliver Me From Nowhere

Kate Hudson in Song Song Blue

Nia Long in Michael

Lisa Marie’s Way Too Early Oscar Predictions For May


We’re taking just a short break from our Eastwood-a-thon so that I can share my Oscar predictions for May.

As I say every month, don’t read too much into anything this early in the year.  I do think Sinners has a decent chance of getting nominated, despite being released early in the year.  And since Cannes has now emerged as a semi-reliable precursor, you’ll find a lot of this year’s winners mentioned below.  That said, in all probability, the actual Oscar nominations will look completely different from what’s below.  That’s part of the fun of doing monthly predictions!

I should note that Clint Eastwood is apparently working on another film.  Given how quickly he directs, he might be directing this year’s next sudden contender.

Click here for my April predictions!

Best Picture

Avatar: Fire and Ash

Deliver Me From Nowhere

F1

Hamnet

It Was Just An Accident

The Secret Agent

Sentimental Value

Sinners

The Smashing Machine

Wicked For Good

Best Director

Jon M. Chu for Wicked For Good

Ryan Coogler for Sinners

Joseph Kosinski for F1

Jafar Panahi for It Was Just An Accident

Joachim Trier for Sentimental Value

Best Actor

Timothee Chalamet in Marty Supreme

Dwayne Johnson in The Smashing Machine

Michael B. Jordan in Sinners

Wagner Moura in The Secret Agent

Jeremy Allen White in Deliver Me From Nowhere

Best Actress

Cynthia Erivo in Wicked For Good

Lucy Liu in Rosemead

Renate Reinsve in Sentimental Valure

Amanda Seyfried in Ann Lee

June Squibb in Eleanor The Great

Best Supporting Actor

Miles Caton in Sinners

Colman Domingo in Michael

Paul Mescal in Hamnet

Stellan Skarsgard in Sentimental Value

Christoph Waltz in Frankenstein

Best Supporting Actress

Elle Fanning in Sentimental Value

Ariana Grande in Wicked For Good

Gabby Hofman in Deliver Me From Nowhere

Kate Hudson in Song Song Blue

Nia Long in Michael

Lisa Marie’s Way Too Early Oscar Predictions For April


Now that the 2024 Oscars are over with, it’s time to move on to the 2025 Oscars!

Needless to say, there’s probably nothing more pointless than trying to guess which films are going to be nominated a year from now.  I can’t even guarantee that all of the films listed below are even going to be released this year.  And, even if they are released this year, I can’t guarantee that they’ll actually be any good or that the Academy will show any interest in them.  I mean, someone like Martin Scorsese always seems like a safe bet but we all remember what happened with Silence.  For months, everyone said Silence would be the Oscar front runner.  Then it was released to respectful but not ecstatic reviews.  Audiences stayed away.  The film ended up with one technical nomination.  And let’s not forget that last year, at this time, the narrative was that it was going to be Ridley Scott’s year.

My point is that no one knows anything.  As much as I hate quoting William Goldman (because, seriously, quoting Goldman on a film site is such a cliché at this point), Goldman was right.

(Add to that, 2025 is starting to look like it’s going to be a seriously underwhelming year as far as the movies are concerned.)

Anyway, here are my random guesses for April!  A few months from now, we can look back at this list and have a good laugh.

Best Picture

After The Hunt

Avatar: Fire and Ash

Deliver Me From Nowhere

Eddington

F1

Frankenstein

The Lost Bus

One Battle After Another

Wicked For Good

The Young Mothers Home

Best Director

Paul Thomas Anderson for One Battle After Another

Jon M. Chu for Wicked For Good

Jean-Pierre and Luc Dardenne for The Young Mother’s Home

Guillermo del Toro for Frankenstein

Joseph Kosinksi for FI

Best Actor

Austin Butler in Eddington

Timothee Chalamet in Marty Supreme

Leonardo DiCaprio in One Battle After Another

Matthew McConaughey in The Lost Bus

Jeremy Allen White in Deliver Me From Nowhere

Best Actress

Olivia Colman in The Roses

Cynthia Erivo in Wicked For Good

Julia Roberts in After The Hunt

Amanda Seyfried in Ann Lee

June Squibb in Eleanor The Great

Best Supporting Actor

Colman Domingo in Michael

Josh O’Connor in The History of Sound

Sean Penn in One Battle After Another

Joaquin Phoenix in Eddington

Christoph Waltz in Frankenstein

Best Supporting Actress

Fran Drescher in Marty Supreme

Ayo Edebri in After The Hunt

Ariana Grande in Wicked For Good

Gabby Hofman in Deliver Me From Nowhere

Nia Long in Michael

Lisa Marie’s Final 2024 Oscar Predictions


The Oscar nominations are due to be announced tomorrow so I guess I should post my final predictions.  2024 has been a rough year for me and my sisters.  Our Dad was in a car accident in May and, after two months of physical rehab, passed away in August while in home hospice care.  Needless to say, going to the movies was the last thing on my mind for much of 2024.

(I’m very thankful that my fellow contributors who kept the site going during our frequent absences.  Their hard work not only kept TSL alive but it also rekindled my own passion for the Shattered Lens.  I am still very much in mourning but writing for this site and sharing my thoughts with our readers has definitely helped me to regain some semblance of stability.)

So, there’s a lot of Oscar hopefuls that I have not seen.  That’s one reason why I haven’t done a best of 2024 list this year or my usual “If Lisa Marie Had All The Power” posts because there’s still a lot that I need to watch.  (I may publish them at some point in February, by which point everyone will have moved on but it will make me feel happy.)  I’m flying blind here with a lot of the potential nominees.  But I’ve been following the guilds and the critic awards and I feel reasonably confident about the predictions below.

Tomorrow morning, we’ll find out how right or wrong I am.

Best Picture

Anora

The Brutalist

A Complete Unknown

Conclave

Dune Part II

The Brutalist

A Real Pain

September 5

The Substance

Wicked

Best Director

Jacques Audiard for Emilia Perez

Sean Baker for Anora

Edward Berger for Conclave

Brady Corbet for The Brutalist

Coralie Fargeat for The Substance

Best Actress

Pamela Anderson in The Last Showgirl

Cynthia Erivo in Wicked

Karla Sofia Gascon in Emilia Perez

Mikey Madison in Anora

Demi Moore for in Substance

Best Actor

Adrien Brody in The Brutalist

Timothee Chalamet in A Compete Unknown

Domingo Colman in Sing Sing

Daniel Craig in Queer

Ralph Fiennes in Conclave

Best Supporting Actress

Jamie Lee Curtis in The Last Showgirl

Ariana Grande in Wicked

Margaret Qualley in The Substance

Isabella Rossellini in Conclave

Zoe Saldana in Emilia Perez

Best Supporting Actor

Yura Borisov in Anora

Kieran Culkin in A Real Pain

Edward Norton in A Complete Unknown

Guy Pearce in The Brutalist

Jeremy Strong in The Apprentice

Here Are The 2025 SAG Nominations


Due to the catastrophic wildfires currently burning in California, Tte Screen Actors Guild dispensed with their usual big nominations announcement and instead sent out a simple press release their morning.

Here are the SAG’s film nominations.  The SAG is a usually pretty good precursor so the folks who were celebrating the victory of the Brutalist on Sunday night have a bit less to celebrate today.  That said, the 2,0000-person nominating committee appear to have really liked The Last Showgirl.  Let’s keep Pamela Anderson’s Oscar hopes alive!

Outstanding Performance by a Male Actor in a Leading Role
ADRIEN BRODY / László Tóth – “THE BRUTALIST”
TIMOTHÉE CHALAMET / Bob Dylan – “A COMPLETE UNKNOWN”
DANIEL CRAIG / William Lee – “QUEER”
COLMAN DOMINGO / Divine G – “SING SING”
RALPH FIENNES / Lawrence – “CONCLAVE”

Outstanding Performance by a Female Actor in a Leading Role
PAMELA ANDERSON / Shelly – “THE LAST SHOWGIRL”
CYNTHIA ERIVO / Elphaba – “WICKED”
KARLA SOFÍA GASCÓN / Emilia/Manitas – “EMILIA PÉREZ”
MIKEY MADISON / Ani – “ANORA”
DEMI MOORE / Elisabeth – “THE SUBSTANCE”

Outstanding Performance by a Male Actor in a Supporting Role
JONATHAN BAILEY / Fiyero – “WICKED”
YURA BORISOV / Igor – “ANORA”
KIERAN CULKIN / Benji Kaplan – “A REAL PAIN”
EDWARD NORTON / Pete Seeger – “A COMPLETE UNKNOWN”
JEREMY STRONG / Roy Cohn – “THE APPRENTICE”

Outstanding Performance by a Female Actor in a Supporting Role
MONICA BARBARO / Joan Baez – “A COMPLETE UNKNOWN”
JAMIE LEE CURTIS / Annette – “THE LAST SHOWGIRL”
DANIELLE DEADWYLER / Berniece – “THE PIANO LESSON”
ARIANA GRANDE / Galinda/Glinda – “WICKED”
ZOE SALDAÑA / Rita – “EMILIA PÉREZ”

Outstanding Performance by a Cast in a Motion Picture
A COMPLETE UNKNOWN
MONICA BARBARO / Joan Baez
NORBERT LEO BUTZ / Alan Lomax
TIMOTHÉE CHALAMET / Bob Dylan
ELLE FANNING / Sylvie Russo
DAN FOGLER / Albert Grossman
WILL HARRISON / Bobby Neuwirth
ERIKO HATSUNE / Toshi Seeger
BOYD HOLBROOK / Johnny Cash
SCOOT MCNAIRY / Woody Guthrie
BIG BILL MORGANFIELD / Jesse Moffette
EDWARD NORTON / Pete Seeger

ANORA
YURA BORISOV / Igor
MARK EYDELSHTEYN / Ivan
KARREN KARAGULIAN / Toros
MIKEY MADISON / Ani
ALEKSEY SEREBRYAKOV / Nikolai Zakharov
VACHE TOVMASYAN / Garnick

CONCLAVE
SERGIO CASTELLITTO / Tedesco
RALPH FIENNES / Lawrence
JOHN LITHGOW / Tremblay
LUCIAN MSAMATI / Adeyemi
ISABELLA ROSSELLINI / Sister Agnes
STANLEY TUCCI / Bellini

EMILIA PÉREZ
KARLA SOFÍA GASCÓN / Emilia/Manitas
SELENA GOMEZ / Jessi
ADRIANA PAZ / Epifania
ZOE SALDAÑA / Rita

WICKED
JONATHAN BAILEY / Fiyero
MARISSA BODE / Nessarose
PETER DINKLAGE / Dr. Dillamond
CYNTHIA ERIVO / Elphaba
JEFF GOLDBLUM / The Wonderful Wizard of Oz
ARIANA GRANDE / Galinda/Glinda
ETHAN SLATER / Boq
BOWEN YANG / Pfannee
MICHELLE YEOH / Madame Morrible

Outstanding Action Performance by a Stunt Ensemble in a Motion Picture
DEADPOOL & WOLVERINE
DUNE: PART TWO
THE FALL GUY
GLADIATOR II
WICKED