Lisa Marie’s Oscar Predictions For November


It’s that time of the month again!

December brings us to Awards Season so the Oscar race is about to become much clearer.  Until the precursors start pouring in, here are my current predictions!

Be sure to check out my predictions for April, May, June, July, August,  September, and October!

Best Picture

Anora

Blitz

The Brutalist

Conclave

Dune Part II

Emilia Perez

Gladiator II

Saturday Night

September 5

Wicked

Best Director

Sean Baker for Anora

Edward Berger for Conclave

Jon M. Chu for Wicked

Brady Corbett for The Brutalist

Ridley Scott for Gladiator II

Best Actor

Adrien Brody in The Brutalist

Timothee Chalamet in A Complete Unknown

Daniel Craig in Queer

Colman Domingo in Sing Sing

Ralph Fiennes in Conclave

Best Actress

Pamela Anderson in The Showgirl

Cynthia Erivo in Wicked

Karla Sofia Gascon in Emila Perez

Angelina Jolie in Maria

Mickey Madison in Anora

Best Supporting Actor

Yura Borslav in Anora

Kieran Culkin in A Real Pain

Samuel L. Jackson in The Piano Lesson

Guy Pearce in The Brutalist

Denzel Washington in Gladiator II

Best Supporting Actress

Danielle Deadwyler in The Piano Lesson

Selena Gomez in Emilia Perez

Saoirse Ronan in Blitz

Isabella Rossellini in Conclave

Zoe Saldana in Emilia Perez

Lisa Marie’s Early Oscar Predictions For October


It’s that time of the month again!

While the rest of us were watching horror movies, the Oscar race was finally starting to take shape.  It’s a race that still doesn’t have any frontrunners but which does now have some definite contenders.

Be sure to check out my predictions for April, May, June, July, August, and September!

Best Picture

Anora

Blitz

The Brutalist

Conclave

Dune Part II

Emilia Perez

Gladiator II

The Piano Lesson

Saturday Night

September 5

Best Director

Jacques Audiard for Emilia Perez

Sean Baker for Anora

Edward Berger for Conclave

Brady Corbett for The Brutalist

Ridley Scott for Gladiator II

Best Actor

Adrien Brody in The Brutalist

Timothee Chalamet in A Complete Unknown

Daniel Craig in Queer

Colman Domingo in Sing Sing

Ralph Fiennes in Conclave

Best Actress

Pamela Anderson in The Showgirl

Karla Sofia Gascon in Emila Perez

Angelina Jolie in Maria

Mickey Madison in Anora

Demi Moore in The Substance

Best Supporting Actor

Yura Borslav in Anora

Kieran Culkin in A Real Pain

Samuel L. Jackson in The Piano Lesson

Guy Pearce in The Brutalist

Denzel Washington in Gladiator II

Best Supporting Actress

Danielle Deadwyler in The Piano Lesson

Selena Gomez in Emilia Perez

Saoirse Ronan in Blitz

Isabella Rossellini in Conclave

Zoe Saldana in Emilia Perez

Lisa Marie’s Early Oscar Predictions For September


It’s that time of the month again!

It’s time for me to share my latest round of Oscar predictions.  Thanks to the summer festival season, the Oscar race is starting to become a bit clearer.  That said, there really don’t seem to be any overwhelming favorites right now.  There are contenders but there are no front runners.  So, I imagine we’ll see some surprise contenders emerge as the precursor season approaches.

You’ll notice that, unlike a lot of Oscar bloggers, I don’t have Gladiator II amongst my predictions.  That’s based on the fact that, every year, there’s a new Ridley Scott film that everyone predicts will be a contender and, with the exception of The Martian, it never happens.  The Academy just does not seem to have the burning desire to honor Ridley Scott that a lot of film bloggers do.  As well,  I’m just not convinced that a sequel starring an actor who has yet to prove he can shoulder the weight of a blockbuster is going to be the film that’s going to win Ridley Scott a Best Director statuette.  Remember that a few years ago, those same Oscar bloggers were insisting that Martin Scorsese’s Silence was going to be not only a contender but also the winner up until the end of November.

(For that matter, let’s not forget that Scorsese’s Killers of the Flower Moon was expected to be a winner as opposed to an also-ran.  Fact of the matter is that, as much as I hate to resort to that overused quote from William Goldman, no one knows anything.)

Do I really think that Pamela Anderson is going to receive a Best Actress nomination?  She’s receiving a lot of acclaim for her role in The Showgirl but, at the same time, she’s Pamela Anderson.  There’s maybe a 2% chance that she’ll get nominated but I always like to throw in a few candidates who go against the conventional wisdom.  So — what the Hell?  Why not?  Pamela Anderson for Best Actress!

Be sure to check out my predictions for April, May, June, July, and August!

Best Picture

Anora

The Apprentice

The Brutalist

A Complete Unknown

Dune Part Two

Emilia Perez

Maria

The Piano Lesson

Saturday Night

Sing Sing

Best Director

Jacques Audiard for Emilia Perez

Sean Baker for Anora

Brady Corbett for The Brutalist

Jason Reitman for Saturday Night

Denis Villeneuve for Dune Part Two

Best Actor

Adrien Brody in The Brutalist

Timothee Chalamet in A Complete Unknown

Daniel Craig in Queer

Colman Domingo in Sing Sing

Ralph Fiennes in Conclave

Best Actress

Pamela Anderson in The Showgirl

Karla Sofia Gascon in Emila Perez

Angelina Jolie in Maria

Mickey Madison in Anora

Demi Moore in The Substance

Best Supporting Actor

Yura Borslav in Anora

Kieran Culkin in A Real Pain

Samuel L. Jackson in The Piano Lesson

Guy Pearce in The Brutalist

Jeremy Strong in The Apprentice

Best Supporting Actress

Monica Barbaro in A Complete Unknown

Danielle Deadwyler in The Piano Lesson

Selena Gomez in Emilia Perez

Felicity Jones in The Brutalist

Zoe Saldana in Emilia Perez

Back to School #63: Thirteen (dir by Catherine Hardwicke)


Have you ever seen a film and thought to yourself, “Oh my God, that’s my life?”

That’s the way I always feel whenever I see the 2003 film Thirteen.  Thirteen is one of my favorite movies but I always get uncomfortable whenever I watch it because a lot of the film hits really close to home for me.  Thirteen tells the story of 13 year-old Tracy (played, in an amazing performance, by Evan Rachel Wood) who, after befriending Evie Zamora (Nikki Reed, who also co-wrote the script along with director Catherine Hardwicke), goes wild.  Soon, Tracy is shoplifting, self-harming, experimenting with drugs and sex, and striking out at her mother, Melanie (Oscar nominee Holly Hunter).

As played by Hunter, Melanie is probably one of the best moms to ever show up in a contemporary film.  I’m tempted to say that Hunter’s performance here is the American equivalent to Sophia Loren’s work in Vittorio De Sica’s Two Women.  Melanie is not portrayed as being perfect.  Instead, she’s a recovering alcoholic who is dating a former drug addict (played by Jeremy Sisto) and she doesn’t always say the right thing and sometimes she does wish that she could just be selfish and not have to deal with her rebellious daughter.  When Evie, claiming that she’s being abused at her own home, literally moves in with Tracy, Melanie instinctively knows that Evie is a bad influence but she can’t bring herself to turn her away.  And yet, for all the mistakes that she makes, Melanie is still a good mom.  She loves her daughter and finally proves that she’s willing to sacrifice her own happiness to try to save Tracy.  Off the top of my head, I can’t tell you who won the Oscar for Best Supporting Actress of 2003, but it should have gone to Holly Hunter.

Thirteen was the directorial debut of one of my favorite director, Catherine Hardwicke.  Hardwicke doesn’t get the critical respect that she deserves, largely because she directed the first Twilight.  (Twilight, however, is not a badly directed film.  The trouble is with the source material, not Hardwicke’s direction.)  With Thirteen, Hardwicke approaches the film with a matter-of-fact directness that keep the movie grounded and prevents it from going over-the-top with its nonstop parade of delinquent behavior.

Thirteen

It’s a difficult film for me to watch because, when I was thirteen, I basically was Tracy.  I was angry at my Dad for leaving us and a part of me blamed my mom but an even bigger part of me blamed myself.  Like Tracy, I felt as if I had been abandoned and I felt as if control of my life was out of my hands.  I resented the life that I imagined I would never get to live and so, I went out of my way to make sure that everyone knew that I didn’t need them but they certainly needed me.  I struck out in whatever way I could and, looking back at it now, I know that, basically from the ages of 13 to 17, I caused a lot of unneccessary pain to the people who loved me.

Thirteen captures all of that perfectly and, therefore, it’s not easy for me to watch.  But, at the same time, I’m always glad after I do watch it because I know that I turned out okay and that gives me hope that, despite the film’s ambiguous ending, Tracy will turn out okay as well.

Thirteen2003Poster