Lisa Marie’s Way Too Early Oscar Predictions For August

Posted on August 31, 2025 by Lisa Marie Bowman

As August comes to a close, the Oscar picture is clearing up a bit due to the festivals. The early word on some films is very strong. Meanwhile, films that were once seen as surefire contenders are falling to the wayside.

And, with that inspiring introduction out of the way, here are my predictions for August.

Click here for my April and May and June and July predictions!

Best Picture

After the Hunt

Hamnet

Jay Kelly

Marty Supreme

Sentimental Value

Sinners

The Smashing Machine

Springsteen: Deliver Me From Nowhere

Wicked For Good

Best Director

Ryan Coogler for Sinners

Benny Safdie for The Smashing Machine

Josh Safdie for Marty Supreme

Joachim Trier for Sentimental Value

Chloe Zhao for Hamnet

Best Actor

Will Arnett in Is This Thing On?

Daniel Day-Lewis in Anemone

Ethan Hawke in Blue Moon

Dwayne Johnson in The Smashing Machine

Jeremy Allen White in Springsteen: Deliver Me From Nowhere

Best Actress

Jessie Buckley in Hamnet

Cynthia Erivo in Wicked For Good

Jennifer Lawrence in Die My Love

Renate Reinsve in Sentimental Valure

Julia Roberts in After The Hunt

Best Supporting Actor

Paul Mescal in Hamnet

Adam Sandler in Jay Kelly

Andrew Scott in Blue Moon

Stellan Skarsgard in Sentimental Value

Jeremy Strong in Springsteen: Deliver Me From Nowhere

Best Supporting Actress

Emily Blunt in The Smashing Machine

Zooey Deutch in Nouvelle Vague

Elle Fanning in Sentimental Value

Ariana Grande in Wicked For Good

Gwyneth Paltrow in Marty Supreme

Lisa Marie’s Way Too Early Oscar Predictions For July

Posted on July 31, 2025 by Lisa Marie Bowman

As July comes to a close, the Oscar picture is still pretty fuzzy. To be honest, it’s hard to get that excited about any of the contenders that have been mentioned. It all pretty much sounds like more of the same, with the exception of Sinners.

Anyway, with that inspiring introduction out of the way, here are my predictions for July.

Click here for my April and May and June predictions!

Best Picture

It Was Just An Accident

Jay Kelly

Nouvelle Vague

Nuremberg

The Secret Agent

Sentimental Value

Sinners

The Smashing Machine

Wicked For Good

Best Director

Jon M. Chu for Wicked For Good

Ryan Coogler for Sinners

Richard Linklater for Nouvelle Vague

Jafar Panahi for It Was Just An Accident

Joachim Trier for Sentimental Value

Best Actor

George Clooney in Jay Kelly

Dwayne Johnson in The Smashing Machine

Michael B. Jordan in Sinners

Wagner Moura in The Secret Agent

Jeremy Allen White in Deliver Me From Nowhere

Best Actress

Cynthia Erivo in Wicked For Good

Jennifer Lawrence in Die My Love

Renate Reinsve in Sentimental Valure

Julia Roberts in After The Hunt

June Squibb in Eleanor The Great

Best Supporting Actor

Miles Caton in Sinners

Russell Crowe in Nuremberg

Adam Sandler in Jay Kelly

Stellan Skarsgard in Sentimental Value

Christoph Waltz in Frankenstein

Best Supporting Actress

Emily Blunt in The Smashing Machine

Ayo Edebiri in After The Hunt

Elle Fanning in Sentimental Value

Ariana Grande in Wicked For Good

Jennifer Lopez in Kiss of the Spider Woman

Lisa Marie’s Way Too Early Oscar Predictions For June

Posted on June 30, 2025 by Lisa Marie Bowman

Click here for my April and May predictions!

Best Picture

Avatar: Fire and Ash

Deliver Me From Nowhere

Hamnet

It Was Just An Accident

The Secret Agent

Sentimental Value

Sinners

The Smashing Machine

Wicked For Good

Best Director

Jon M. Chu for Wicked For Good

Ryan Coogler for Sinners

Joseph Kosinski for F1

Jafar Panahi for It Was Just An Accident

Joachim Trier for Sentimental Value

Best Actor

Timothee Chalamet in Marty Supreme

Dwayne Johnson in The Smashing Machine

Michael B. Jordan in Sinners

Wagner Moura in The Secret Agent

Jeremy Allen White in Deliver Me From Nowhere

Best Actress

Cynthia Erivo in Wicked For Good

Lucy Liu in Rosemead

Renate Reinsve in Sentimental Valure

Amanda Seyfried in Ann Lee

June Squibb in Eleanor The Great

Best Supporting Actor

Miles Caton in Sinners

Colman Domingo in Michael

Paul Mescal in Hamnet

Stellan Skarsgard in Sentimental Value

Christoph Waltz in Frankenstein

Best Supporting Actress

Elle Fanning in Sentimental Value

Ariana Grande in Wicked For Good

Gabby Hofman in Deliver Me From Nowhere

Kate Hudson in Song Song Blue

Nia Long in Michael

Lisa Marie’s Way Too Early Oscar Predictions For May

Posted on May 31, 2025 by Lisa Marie Bowman

We’re taking just a short break from our Eastwood-a-thon so that I can share my Oscar predictions for May.

As I say every month, don’t read too much into anything this early in the year. I do think Sinners has a decent chance of getting nominated, despite being released early in the year. And since Cannes has now emerged as a semi-reliable precursor, you’ll find a lot of this year’s winners mentioned below. That said, in all probability, the actual Oscar nominations will look completely different from what’s below. That’s part of the fun of doing monthly predictions!

I should note that Clint Eastwood is apparently working on another film. Given how quickly he directs, he might be directing this year’s next sudden contender.

Click here for my April predictions!

Best Picture

Avatar: Fire and Ash

Deliver Me From Nowhere

Hamnet

It Was Just An Accident

The Secret Agent

Sentimental Value

Sinners

The Smashing Machine

Wicked For Good

Best Director

Jon M. Chu for Wicked For Good

Ryan Coogler for Sinners

Joseph Kosinski for F1

Jafar Panahi for It Was Just An Accident

Joachim Trier for Sentimental Value

Best Actor

Timothee Chalamet in Marty Supreme

Dwayne Johnson in The Smashing Machine

Michael B. Jordan in Sinners

Wagner Moura in The Secret Agent

Jeremy Allen White in Deliver Me From Nowhere

Best Actress

Cynthia Erivo in Wicked For Good

Lucy Liu in Rosemead

Renate Reinsve in Sentimental Valure

Amanda Seyfried in Ann Lee

June Squibb in Eleanor The Great

Best Supporting Actor

Miles Caton in Sinners

Colman Domingo in Michael

Paul Mescal in Hamnet

Stellan Skarsgard in Sentimental Value

Christoph Waltz in Frankenstein

Best Supporting Actress

Elle Fanning in Sentimental Value

Ariana Grande in Wicked For Good

Gabby Hofman in Deliver Me From Nowhere

Kate Hudson in Song Song Blue

Nia Long in Michael

Lisa Marie’s Way Too Early Oscar Predictions For April

Posted on April 5, 2025 by Lisa Marie Bowman

Now that the 2024 Oscars are over with, it’s time to move on to the 2025 Oscars!

Needless to say, there’s probably nothing more pointless than trying to guess which films are going to be nominated a year from now. I can’t even guarantee that all of the films listed below are even going to be released this year. And, even if they are released this year, I can’t guarantee that they’ll actually be any good or that the Academy will show any interest in them. I mean, someone like Martin Scorsese always seems like a safe bet but we all remember what happened with Silence. For months, everyone said Silence would be the Oscar front runner. Then it was released to respectful but not ecstatic reviews. Audiences stayed away. The film ended up with one technical nomination. And let’s not forget that last year, at this time, the narrative was that it was going to be Ridley Scott’s year.

My point is that no one knows anything. As much as I hate quoting William Goldman (because, seriously, quoting Goldman on a film site is such a cliché at this point), Goldman was right.

(Add to that, 2025 is starting to look like it’s going to be a seriously underwhelming year as far as the movies are concerned.)

Anyway, here are my random guesses for April! A few months from now, we can look back at this list and have a good laugh.

Best Picture

After The Hunt

Avatar: Fire and Ash

Deliver Me From Nowhere

Eddington

Frankenstein

The Lost Bus

One Battle After Another

Wicked For Good

The Young Mothers Home

Best Director

Paul Thomas Anderson for One Battle After Another

Jon M. Chu for Wicked For Good

Jean-Pierre and Luc Dardenne for The Young Mother’s Home

Guillermo del Toro for Frankenstein

Joseph Kosinksi for FI

Best Actor

Austin Butler in Eddington

Timothee Chalamet in Marty Supreme

Leonardo DiCaprio in One Battle After Another

Matthew McConaughey in The Lost Bus

Jeremy Allen White in Deliver Me From Nowhere

Best Actress

Olivia Colman in The Roses

Cynthia Erivo in Wicked For Good

Julia Roberts in After The Hunt

Amanda Seyfried in Ann Lee

June Squibb in Eleanor The Great

Best Supporting Actor

Colman Domingo in Michael

Josh O’Connor in The History of Sound

Sean Penn in One Battle After Another

Joaquin Phoenix in Eddington

Christoph Waltz in Frankenstein

Best Supporting Actress

Fran Drescher in Marty Supreme

Ayo Edebri in After The Hunt

Ariana Grande in Wicked For Good

Gabby Hofman in Deliver Me From Nowhere

Nia Long in Michael

My Oscar Predictions

Posted on March 2, 2025 by Lisa Marie Bowman

Okay, let’s do this! Here are my predictions of what will win at the big show tonight!

Best Picture — Anora

Best Directing — Sean Baker, Anora

Best Actor — Timothee Chalamet, A Complete Unknown

Best Actress — Mikey Madison, Anora

Best Supporting Actor — Kieran Culkin, A Real Pain

Best Supporting Actress — Ariana Grande, Wicked

Best Original Screenplay — A Real Pain

Best Adapted Screenplay — Conclave

Best Animated Feature — The Wild Robot

Best Production Design — Wicked

Best Cinematography — Nosferatu

Best Costume Design — Wicked

Best Film Editing — Conclave

Best Makeup and Hairstyling — Wicked

Best Sound — Dune Part II

Best Visual Effects — Dune Part II

Best Original Score — The Brutalist

Best Original Song — Never Too Late from Elton John: Never Too Late

Best Documentary Feature — Sugarcane

Best International Feature: I’m Still Here

Best Animated Short: Yuck!

Best Documentary Short: The Only Girl In The Orchestra

Best Live Action Short: The Man Who Could Not Remain Silent

Lisa Marie’s Final 2024 Oscar Predictions

Posted on January 22, 2025 by Lisa Marie Bowman

The Oscar nominations are due to be announced tomorrow so I guess I should post my final predictions. 2024 has been a rough year for me and my sisters. Our Dad was in a car accident in May and, after two months of physical rehab, passed away in August while in home hospice care. Needless to say, going to the movies was the last thing on my mind for much of 2024.

(I’m very thankful that my fellow contributors who kept the site going during our frequent absences. Their hard work not only kept TSL alive but it also rekindled my own passion for the Shattered Lens. I am still very much in mourning but writing for this site and sharing my thoughts with our readers has definitely helped me to regain some semblance of stability.)

So, there’s a lot of Oscar hopefuls that I have not seen. That’s one reason why I haven’t done a best of 2024 list this year or my usual “If Lisa Marie Had All The Power” posts because there’s still a lot that I need to watch. (I may publish them at some point in February, by which point everyone will have moved on but it will make me feel happy.) I’m flying blind here with a lot of the potential nominees. But I’ve been following the guilds and the critic awards and I feel reasonably confident about the predictions below.

Tomorrow morning, we’ll find out how right or wrong I am.

Best Picture

Anora

The Brutalist

A Complete Unknown

Conclave

Dune Part II

The Brutalist

A Real Pain

September 5

The Substance

Wicked

Best Director

Jacques Audiard for Emilia Perez

Sean Baker for Anora

Edward Berger for Conclave

Brady Corbet for The Brutalist

Coralie Fargeat for The Substance

Best Actress

Pamela Anderson in The Last Showgirl

Cynthia Erivo in Wicked

Karla Sofia Gascon in Emilia Perez

Mikey Madison in Anora

Demi Moore for in Substance

Best Actor

Adrien Brody in The Brutalist

Timothee Chalamet in A Compete Unknown

Domingo Colman in Sing Sing

Daniel Craig in Queer

Ralph Fiennes in Conclave

Best Supporting Actress

Jamie Lee Curtis in The Last Showgirl

Ariana Grande in Wicked

Margaret Qualley in The Substance

Isabella Rossellini in Conclave

Zoe Saldana in Emilia Perez

Best Supporting Actor

Yura Borisov in Anora

Kieran Culkin in A Real Pain

Edward Norton in A Complete Unknown

Guy Pearce in The Brutalist

Jeremy Strong in The Apprentice

Here Are The 2025 SAG Nominations

Posted on January 8, 2025 by Lisa Marie Bowman

Due to the catastrophic wildfires currently burning in California, Tte Screen Actors Guild dispensed with their usual big nominations announcement and instead sent out a simple press release their morning.

Here are the SAG’s film nominations. The SAG is a usually pretty good precursor so the folks who were celebrating the victory of the Brutalist on Sunday night have a bit less to celebrate today. That said, the 2,0000-person nominating committee appear to have really liked The Last Showgirl. Let’s keep Pamela Anderson’s Oscar hopes alive!

Outstanding Performance by a Male Actor in a Leading Role
ADRIEN BRODY / László Tóth – “THE BRUTALIST”
TIMOTHÉE CHALAMET / Bob Dylan – “A COMPLETE UNKNOWN”
DANIEL CRAIG / William Lee – “QUEER”
COLMAN DOMINGO / Divine G – “SING SING”
RALPH FIENNES / Lawrence – “CONCLAVE”

Outstanding Performance by a Female Actor in a Leading Role
PAMELA ANDERSON / Shelly – “THE LAST SHOWGIRL”
CYNTHIA ERIVO / Elphaba – “WICKED”
KARLA SOFÍA GASCÓN / Emilia/Manitas – “EMILIA PÉREZ”
MIKEY MADISON / Ani – “ANORA”
DEMI MOORE / Elisabeth – “THE SUBSTANCE”

Outstanding Performance by a Male Actor in a Supporting Role
JONATHAN BAILEY / Fiyero – “WICKED”
YURA BORISOV / Igor – “ANORA”
KIERAN CULKIN / Benji Kaplan – “A REAL PAIN”
EDWARD NORTON / Pete Seeger – “A COMPLETE UNKNOWN”
JEREMY STRONG / Roy Cohn – “THE APPRENTICE”

Outstanding Performance by a Female Actor in a Supporting Role
MONICA BARBARO / Joan Baez – “A COMPLETE UNKNOWN”
JAMIE LEE CURTIS / Annette – “THE LAST SHOWGIRL”
DANIELLE DEADWYLER / Berniece – “THE PIANO LESSON”
ARIANA GRANDE / Galinda/Glinda – “WICKED”
ZOE SALDAÑA / Rita – “EMILIA PÉREZ”

Outstanding Performance by a Cast in a Motion Picture
A COMPLETE UNKNOWN
MONICA BARBARO / Joan Baez
NORBERT LEO BUTZ / Alan Lomax
TIMOTHÉE CHALAMET / Bob Dylan
ELLE FANNING / Sylvie Russo
DAN FOGLER / Albert Grossman
WILL HARRISON / Bobby Neuwirth
ERIKO HATSUNE / Toshi Seeger
BOYD HOLBROOK / Johnny Cash
SCOOT MCNAIRY / Woody Guthrie
BIG BILL MORGANFIELD / Jesse Moffette
EDWARD NORTON / Pete Seeger

ANORA
YURA BORISOV / Igor
MARK EYDELSHTEYN / Ivan
KARREN KARAGULIAN / Toros
MIKEY MADISON / Ani
ALEKSEY SEREBRYAKOV / Nikolai Zakharov
VACHE TOVMASYAN / Garnick

CONCLAVE
SERGIO CASTELLITTO / Tedesco
RALPH FIENNES / Lawrence
JOHN LITHGOW / Tremblay
LUCIAN MSAMATI / Adeyemi
ISABELLA ROSSELLINI / Sister Agnes
STANLEY TUCCI / Bellini

EMILIA PÉREZ
KARLA SOFÍA GASCÓN / Emilia/Manitas
SELENA GOMEZ / Jessi
ADRIANA PAZ / Epifania
ZOE SALDAÑA / Rita

WICKED
JONATHAN BAILEY / Fiyero
MARISSA BODE / Nessarose
PETER DINKLAGE / Dr. Dillamond
CYNTHIA ERIVO / Elphaba
JEFF GOLDBLUM / The Wonderful Wizard of Oz
ARIANA GRANDE / Galinda/Glinda
ETHAN SLATER / Boq
BOWEN YANG / Pfannee
MICHELLE YEOH / Madame Morrible

Outstanding Action Performance by a Stunt Ensemble in a Motion Picture
DEADPOOL & WOLVERINE
DUNE: PART TWO
THE FALL GUY
GLADIATOR II
WICKED

Conclave Wins In North Carolina

Posted on January 5, 2025 by Lisa Marie Bowman

The North Carolina Film Critics Association has announced its picks for the best of 2024!

BEST NARRATIVE FILM
Anora
The Brutalist
Challengers
Civil War
Conclave
Dune: Part Two
I Saw the TV Glow
Nickel Boys
Nosferatu
The Substance

BEST DOCUMENTARY FILM
Dahomey
No Other Land
Sugarcane
Super/Man: The Christopher Reeve Story
Will & Harper

BEST ANIMATED FILM
Flow
Inside Out 2
Memoir of a Snail
Transformers One
The Wild Robot

BEST FOREIGN LANGUAGE FILM
All We Imagine As Light
Emilia Pérez
Evil Does Not Exist
I’m Still Here
The Seed of the Sacred Fig

BEST DIRECTOR
Brady Corbet – The Brutalist
Coralie Fargeat – The Substance
Luca Guadagnino – Challengers
RaMell Ross – Nickel Boys
Denis Villeneuve – Dune: Part Two

BEST ACTOR
Adrien Brody – The Brutalist
Timothée Chalamet – A Complete Unknown
Daniel Craig – Queer
Colman Domingo – Sing Sing
Ralph Fiennes – Conclave

BEST ACTRESS
Cynthia Erivo – Wicked
Marianne Jean-Baptiste – Hard Truths
Mikey Madison – Anora
Demi Moore – The Substance
Zendaya – Challengers

BEST SUPPORTING ACTOR
Yura Borisov – Anora
Kieran Culkin – A Real Pain
Chris Hemsworth – Furiosa: A Mad Max Saga
Clarence Maclin – Sing Sing
Denzel Washington – Gladiator II

BEST SUPPORTING ACTRESS
Aunjanue Ellis-Taylor – Nickel Boys
Ariana Grande – Wicked
Felicity Jones – The Brutalist
Katy O’Brian – Love Lies Bleeding
Margaret Qualley – The Substance
Isabella Rossellini – Conclave

BEST VOCAL PERFORMANCE IN ANIMATION OR MIXED MEDIA
Kevin Durand – Kingdom of the Planet of the Apes
Lupita Nyong’o – The Wild Robot
Maya Hawke – Inside Out 2
Pedro Pascal – The Wild Robot
Sarah Snook – Memoir of a Snail

BEST ACTING ENSEMBLE
Conclave
Dune: Part Two
Saturday Night
Sing Sing
Wicked

BEST ORIGINAL SCREENPLAY
A Different Man
Anora
The Brutalist
Challengers
The Substance

BEST ADAPTED SCREENPLAY
Conclave
Dune: Part Two
Nickel Boys
Nosferatu
Sing Sing

BEST CINEMATOGRAPHY
Challengers
Dune: Part Two
Nickel Boys
Nosferatu
The Brutalist

BEST EDITING
Anora
Challengers
Conclave
Dune: Part Two
Nickel Boys

BEST COSTUME DESIGN
Conclave
Dune: Part Two
Furiosa: A Mad Max Saga
Nosferatu
Wicked

BEST HAIR AND MAKEUP
A Different Man
Dune: Part Two
Nosferatu
The Substance
Wicked

BEST PRODUCTION DESIGN
The Brutalist
Dune: Part Two
Furiosa: A Mad Max Saga
Nosferatu
Wicked

BEST SCORE
The Brutalist
Challengers
Conclave
Nosferatu
The Wild Robot

BEST ORIGINAL SONG
“Compress/Repress” – Challengers
“El Mal” – Emilia Pérez
“Harper and Will Go West” – Will & Harper
“Kiss the Sky” – The Wild Robot
“Like a Bird” – Sing Sing

BEST SOUND DESIGN
Challengers
Civil War
Dune: Part Two
Nosferatu
Wicked

BEST SPECIAL EFFECTS
Dune: Part Two
Furiosa: A Mad Max Saga
Kingdom of the Planet of the Apes
Nosferatu
The Substance

BEST STUNT COORDINATION
Dune: Part Two
The Fall Guy
Furiosa: A Mad Max Saga
Gladiator II
Monkey Man

DIRECTORIAL DEBUT
Vera Drew – The People’s Joker
Francis Galluppi – The Last Stop in Yuma County
Zoë Kravitz – Blink Twice
Josh Margolin – Thelma
Sean Wang – Dìdi (弟弟)
Malcolm Washington – The Piano Lesson

BREAKTHROUGH PERFORMANCE
Carlos Diehz – Conclave
Clarence Maclin – Sing Sing
Mikey Madison – Anora
Katy O’Brian – Love Lies Bleeding
Adam Pearson – A Different Man

LIFETIME ACHIEVEMENT: Cinematography
Roger Deakins
Christopher Doyle
Greig Fraser
Emmanuel Lubezki
Hoyte van Hoytema

KEN HANKE MEMORIAL TAR HEEL AWARD
Stephen McKinley Henderson – Civil War
Jeff Nichols (Director) – The Bikeriders
Margaret Qualley – The Substance
Hunter Schafer – Cuckoo
Drew Starkey – Queer

Conclave Wins In Oklahoma

Posted on January 5, 2025 by Lisa Marie Bowman

On the 3rd, the Oklahoma Film Critics Circle announced their picks for the best of 2024!

Top 10 Films
1. Conclave
2. Anora
3. The Brutalist
4. Challengers
5. Wicked
6. Sing Sing
7. Dune: Part Two
8. The Substance
9. I Saw the TV Glow
10. Memoir of a Snail

Best Actor
Winner: Ralph Fiennes, Conclave
Runner-Up: Adrien Brody, The Brutalist

Best Actress
Winner: Mikey Madison, Anora
Runner-Up: Demi Moore, The Substance

Best Supporting Actor
Winner: Clarence Maclin, Sing Sing
Runner-Up: Edward Norton, A Complete Unknown

Best Supporting Actress
Winner: Ariana Grande, Wicked
Runner-Up: Isabella Rossellini, Conclave

Best Original Screenplay
Winner: The Brutalist
Runner-Up: Anora

Best Adapted Screenplay
Winner: Conclave
Runner-Up: Sing Sing

Best Director
Winner: Edward Berger, Conclave
Runner-Up: Brady Corbet, The Brutalist

Best Documentary
Winner: Sugarcane
Runner-Up: Will & Harper

Best Animated Feature
Winner: The Wild Robot
Runner-Up: Flow

Best Foreign Language Film
Winner: Emilia Pérez
Runner-Up: The Seed of the Sacred Fig

Best Cinematography
Winner: Nosferatu
Runner-Up: The Brutalist

Best Score
Winner: Challengers
Runner-Up: Conclave