Lisa Marie’s Oscar Predictions For November


I guess the question right now is whether or not Wicked: For Good will receive a Best Picture nomination.  Tradition would seem to dictate that, like The Lord of the Rings films and the Dune films, Wicked: For Good would get a nomination to go along with the first part of the story.  However, the reviews of Wicked: For Good have not been particularly good.

That said, those reviews have not had much effect when it comes to the film’s box office.  And that’s why I think, despite bad reviews, Wicked: For Good will be nominated.  I don’t think it’s going be quite the Oscar powerhouse that some were expecting but it will still, at the very least, be nominated.  It’s too big to fail at this point.

Here are my review for November.  Click here for my April and May and June and July and August and September and October predictions!

Best Picture

Avatar: Fire and Ash

Frankenstein

Hamnet

Jay Kelly

Marty Supreme

One Battle After Another

Sentimental Value

Sinners

Train Dreams

Wicked For Good

Best Director

Paul Thomas Anderson for One Battle After Another

Ryan Coogler for Sinners

Josh Safie for Marty Supreme

Joachim Trier for Sentimental Value

Chloe Zhao for Hamnet

Best Actor

Timothee Chalamet in Marty Supreme

George Clooney in Jay Kelly

Joel Edgerton in Train Dreams

Ethan Hawke in Blue Moon

Wagner Moura in The Secret Agent

Best Actress

Jessie Buckley in Hamnet

Cynthia Erivo in Wicked For Good

Kate Hudson in Song Sung Blue

Renate Reinsve in Sentimental Valure

Amanda Seyfried in The Testament of Ann Lee

Best Supporting Actor

Benicio del Toro in One Battle After Another

Paul Mescal in Hamnet

Sean Penn in One Battle After Another

Adam Sandler in Jay Kelly

Stellan Skarsgard in Sentimental Value

Best Supporting Actress

Elle Fanning in Sentimental Value

Ariana Grande in Wicked For Good

Regina Hall in One Battle After Another

Inga Ibsdotter Lilleaas in Sentimental Value

Amy Madigan in Weapons

Lisa Marie’s Oscar Predictions For October


Really?  Oscar predictions on Halloween night?

Eh.  Why not?

Click here for my April and May and June and July and August and September predictions!

Best Picture

Hamnet

It Was Just An Accident

Jay Kelly

Marty Supreme

One Battle After Another

Sentimental Value

Sinners

The Smashing Machine

Train Dreams

Wicked For Good

Best Director

Paul Thomas Anderson for One Battle After Another

Ryan Coogler for Sinners

Benny Safdie for The Smashing Machine

Joachim Trier for Sentimental Value

Chloe Zhao for Hamnet

Best Actor

Timothee Chalamet in Marty Supreme

Joel Edgerton in Train Dreams

Ethan Hawke in Blue Moon

Dwayne Johnson in The Smashing Machine

Wagner Moura in The Secret Agent

Best Actress

Jessie Buckley in Hamnet

Cynthia Erivo in Wicked For Good

Kate Hudson in Song Sung Blue

Renate Reinsve in Sentimental Valure

Sydney Sweeney in Christy

Best Supporting Actor

Benicio del Toro in One Battle After Another

Jacob Elordi in Frankenstein

Paul Mescal in Hamnet

Adam Sandler in Jay Kelly

Stellan Skarsgard in Sentimental Value

Best Supporting Actress

Emily Blunt in The Smashing Machine

Elle Fanning in Sentimental Value

Ariana Grande in Wicked For Good

Regina Hall in One Battle After Another

Amy Madigan in Weapons

One Battle After Another Leads The Gotham Nominations


For better or worse, Awards Season started today with the announcement of the Gotham nominations.  The Gothams are supposed to honor independent films, though the line between studio and independent is now so thin that it’s sometimes difficult to tell which is which.

In the past, the Gothams honored obscure films and also low-budget films that captured the public’s imagination.  This year, they gave the majority of their nominations to One Battle After Another, a big-budget film that starred a slew of Hollywood heavyweights.  Meanwhile, Sinners, a genuinely independent feature, received one nomination.

It’s debatable how much of a precursor the Gothams are.  They’re a critic-selected award and it’s always the guild awards that serve as the best precursors.  Still, it always helps to be mentioned somewhere.

Here are the 2025 Gotham nominations!

Best Feature
Bugonia
East of Wall
Hamnet
If I Had Legs I’d Kick You
Lurker
One Battle After Another
Sorry, Baby
The Testament of Ann Lee
Train Dreams

Best Director
Mary Bronstein – If I Had Legs I’d Kick You
Jafar Panahi – It Was Just an Accident
Kelly Reichardt – The Mastermind
Paul Thomas Anderson – One Battle After Another
Oliver Laxe – Sirât

Outstanding Lead Performance
Jessie Buckley – Hamnet
Lee Byung-hun – No Other Choice
Rose Byrne – If I Had Legs I’d Kick You
Sopé Dìrísù – My Father’s Shadow
Ethan Hawke – Blue Moon
Jennifer Lawrence – Die My Love
Wagner Moura – The Secret Agent
Josh O’Connor – The Mastermind
Amanda Seyfried – The Testament of Ann Lee
Tessa Thompson – Hedda

Outstanding Supporting Performance
Benicio Del Toro – One Battle After Another
Jacob Elordi – Frankenstein
Inga Ibsdotter Lilleaas – Sentimental Value
Indya Moore – Father Mother Sister Brother
Wunmi Mosaku – Sinners
Adam Sandler – Jay Kelly
Andrew Scott – Blue Moon
Alexander Skarsgård – Pillion
Stellan Skarsgård – Sentimental Value
Teyana Taylor – One Battle After Another

Best Original Screenplay
If I Had Legs I’d Kick You
It Was Just an Accident
The Secret Agent
Sorry, Baby
Sound of Falling

Best Adapted Screenplay
No Other Choice
One Battle After Another
Pillion
Preparation for the Next Life
Train Dreams

Best International Feature
It Was Just an Accident
No Other Choice
Nouvelle Vague
Resurrection
Sound of Falling

Best Documentary Feature
2000 Meters to Andriivka
BLKNWS: Terms & Conditions
My Undesirable Friends: Part I – Last Air in Moscow
The Perfect Neighbor
Put Your Soul on Your Hand and Walk

Breakthrough Director
Constance Tsang – Blue Sun Palace
Carson Lund – Eephus
Sarah Friedland – Familiar Touch
Akinola Davies Jr. – My Father’s Shadow
Harris Dickinson – Urchin

Breakthrough Performer
A$AP Rocky – Highest 2 Lowest
Sebiye Behtiyar – Preparation for the Next Life
Chase Infiniti – One Battle After Another
Abou Sangaré – Souleymane’s Story
Tonatiuh – Kiss of the Spider Woman

Lisa Marie’s Oscar Predictions For September


As September comes to a close, the Oscar picture is clearing up a bit.  The early word on some films is very strong.  The new Paul Thomas Anderson film is being massively hyped online, though I get a Killers of the Flower Moon/Brutalist vibe from a lot of the coverage.  Meanwhile, films that were once seen as surefire contenders are falling to the wayside.

And, with that inspiring introduction out of the way, here are my predictions for September.

Click here for my April and May and June and July and August predictions!

Best Picture

Hamnet

Jay Kelly

Marty Supreme

One Battle After Another

The Secret Agent

Sentimental Value

Sinners

The Smashing Machine

Springsteen: Deliver Me From Nowhere

Wicked For Good

Best Director

Paul Thomas Anderson for One Battle After Another

Ryan Coogler for Sinners

Benny Safdie for The Smashing Machine

Joachim Trier for Sentimental Value

Chloe Zhao for Hamnet

Best Actor

Daniel Day-Lewis in Anemone

Leonard Di Caprio in One Battle After Another

Dwayne Johnson in The Smashing Machine

Wagner Moura in The Secret Agent

Jeremy Allen White in Springsteen: Deliver Me From Nowhere

Best Actress

Jessie Buckley in Hamnet

Cynthia Erivo in Wicked For Good

Jennifer Lawrence in Die My Love

Renate Reinsve in Sentimental Valure

Julia Roberts in After The Hunt

Best Supporting Actor

Paul Mescal in Hamnet

Sean Penn in One Battle After Another

Adam Sandler in Jay Kelly

Stellan Skarsgard in Sentimental Value

Jeremy Strong in Springsteen: Deliver Me From Nowhere

Best Supporting Actress

Emily Blunt in The Smashing Machine

Zooey Deutch in Nouvelle Vague

Elle Fanning in Sentimental Value

Ariana Grande in Wicked For Good

Emily Watson in Hamnet

Lisa Marie’s Way Too Early Oscar Predictions For August


As August comes to a close, the Oscar picture is clearing up a bit due to the festivals.  The early word on some films is very strong.  Meanwhile, films that were once seen as surefire contenders are falling to the wayside.

And, with that inspiring introduction out of the way, here are my predictions for August.

Click here for my April and May and June and July predictions!

Best Picture

After the Hunt

F1

Hamnet

Jay Kelly

Marty Supreme

Sentimental Value

Sinners

The Smashing Machine

Springsteen: Deliver Me From Nowhere

Wicked For Good

Best Director

Ryan Coogler for Sinners

Benny Safdie for The Smashing Machine

Josh Safdie for Marty Supreme

Joachim Trier for Sentimental Value

Chloe Zhao for Hamnet

Best Actor

Will Arnett in Is This Thing On?

Daniel Day-Lewis in Anemone

Ethan Hawke in Blue Moon

Dwayne Johnson in The Smashing Machine

Jeremy Allen White in Springsteen: Deliver Me From Nowhere

Best Actress

Jessie Buckley in Hamnet

Cynthia Erivo in Wicked For Good

Jennifer Lawrence in Die My Love

Renate Reinsve in Sentimental Valure

Julia Roberts in After The Hunt

Best Supporting Actor

Paul Mescal in Hamnet

Adam Sandler in Jay Kelly

Andrew Scott in Blue Moon

Stellan Skarsgard in Sentimental Value

Jeremy Strong in Springsteen: Deliver Me From Nowhere

Best Supporting Actress

Emily Blunt in The Smashing Machine

Zooey Deutch in Nouvelle Vague

Elle Fanning in Sentimental Value

Ariana Grande in Wicked For Good

Gwyneth Paltrow in Marty Supreme

Scene That I Love: Jennifer Lawrence in Winter’s Bone


Today, the Shattered Lens wishes a happy birthday to one of the best actresses of her generation, Jennifer Lawrence.  This scene that I love comes from 2009’s Winter’s Bone.  I still think this is Lawrence’s best performance.

Lisa Marie’s Way Too Early Oscar Predictions For July


As July comes to a close, the Oscar picture is still pretty fuzzy.  To be honest, it’s hard to get that excited about any of the contenders that have been mentioned.  It all pretty much sounds like more of the same, with the exception of Sinners.

Anyway, with that inspiring introduction out of the way, here are my predictions for July.

Click here for my April and May and June predictions!

Best Picture

F1

It Was Just An Accident

Jay Kelly

Nouvelle Vague

Nuremberg

The Secret Agent

Sentimental Value

Sinners

The Smashing Machine

Wicked For Good

Best Director

Jon M. Chu for Wicked For Good

Ryan Coogler for Sinners

Richard Linklater for Nouvelle Vague

Jafar Panahi for It Was Just An Accident

Joachim Trier for Sentimental Value

Best Actor

George Clooney in Jay Kelly

Dwayne Johnson in The Smashing Machine

Michael B. Jordan in Sinners

Wagner Moura in The Secret Agent

Jeremy Allen White in Deliver Me From Nowhere

Best Actress

Cynthia Erivo in Wicked For Good

Jennifer Lawrence in Die My Love

Renate Reinsve in Sentimental Valure

Julia Roberts in After The Hunt

June Squibb in Eleanor The Great

Best Supporting Actor

Miles Caton in Sinners

Russell Crowe in Nuremberg

Adam Sandler in Jay Kelly

Stellan Skarsgard in Sentimental Value

Christoph Waltz in Frankenstein

Best Supporting Actress

Emily Blunt in The Smashing Machine

Ayo Edebiri in After The Hunt

Elle Fanning in Sentimental Value

Ariana Grande in Wicked For Good

Jennifer Lopez in Kiss of the Spider Woman

Live Tweet Alert: Watch House At The End Of The Street With #ScarySocial!


 

As some of our regular readers undoubtedly know, I am involved in a few weekly live tweets on twitter.  I host #FridayNightFlix every Friday, I co-host #ScarySocial on Saturday, and I am one of the five hosts of #MondayActionMovie!  Every week, we get together.  We watch a movie.  We tweet our way through it.

Tonight, for #ScarySocial, I will be hosting 2012’s House At The End Of The Street!  Starring Jennifer Lawrence and Elisabeth Shue, this film is a personal favorite of mine.

If you want to join us on Saturday night, just hop onto twitter, start the film at 9 pm et, and use the #ScarySocial hashtag!  The film is available on Prime and YouTube!.  I’ll be there co-hosting and I imagine some other members of the TSL Crew will be there as well.  It’s a friendly group and welcoming of newcomers so don’t be shy.

*Sigh* Here’s The Trailer for Adam McKay’s Don’t Look Up


Adam McKay has a new movie coming out.  It’s called Don’t Look Up and the cast is packed with stars.  It’s apparently a comedy about two astronomers who discover that a comet is about to collide with Earth, potentially ending all life as we know it.

Here’s the teaser:

I’m not really a big Adam McKay fan.  In fact, I think the last Adam McKay film that I really liked was AnchormanThe Big Short was overrated and smug.  Vice was an attempt to destroy Dick Cheney that, instead, rehabilitated the former vice president’s image in the eyes of many.  (I mean, seriously, it takes a certain amount of effort to screw up a film that’s only reason for existing was to portray Dick Cheney as being a sinister figure.)  Both Vice and The Big Short were victims of McKay’s tendency to try too hard to prove that he’s capable of more than just Anchorman.  (Let’s be honest, though.  If you had to pick between Anchorman and either of McKay’s Oscar-nominated films, which one are you going for?)

McKay is not a particularly good or clever political satirist but there are people who love his work, largely because they already agree with him.  His films are like the progressive, secular version of God’s Not Dead, heavy-handed, predictable, and beloved by people who exist in a very specific social and cultural bubble.  Of course, both The Big Short and Vice received several Oscar nominations but that due more to Hollywood agreeing with the film’s politics than the films themselves.

Anyway, the teaser features Leonardo DiCaprio, Jonah Hill, Meryl Streep, and Jennifer Lawrence, all acting up a storm.  (These are four talented actors, all of whom really need a director who is willing to say, “Okay, let’s dial it back a little.”  Subtlety, of course, is not really a McKay specialty.)  I’m not looking forward to this film but I’ll still watch it when it shows up on Netflix.  Who knows?  Maybe it’ll feel more like Anchorman than Vice.  One can only hope!

Icarus File No. 5: mother! (dir by Darren Aronofsky)


You have to admire the courage of a filmmaker like Darren Aronofsky.  After receiving some overdue Oscar love for Black Swan, Aronofsky probably could have settled into the type of career that Tim Burton currently has: i.e., the self-styled quirky director who makes safe studio films.  Instead, Aronofsky has continued to chart his own course as an artist by following up Black Swan with two films that seemed specifically designed to challenge audiences and annoy the complacent.

With Noah, Aronofsky dared to suggest that God’s mistake with the Great Flood was to allow anyone to survive at all.  Then, he followed up Noah with 2017’s mother!, which was a film that practically dared confused and alienated audience members to stand up and walk out.  And walk out they did.  mother! was one of the few films to score an F on Cinemascore.  I mean, typically, a bad movie will at least get a C.  You have to really piss off the audience to get that F rating.  Watching mother!, it’s obvious that pissing off the audience was a part of the film’s design.

Paramount Picture advertised mother! as being a horror film and, to a certain extent, it is.  Jennifer Lawrence plays the Mother.  She lives in a beautiful house with a poet named Him (Javier Bardem).  Him spends a lot of time talking about how much he loves the Mother but it quickly becomes apparent that he’s rather self-absorbed.  People are constantly showing up at the house to speak to and eventually worship Him and he continually lets them, regardless of how difficult it makes things for the Mother.  The Mother is reduced to begging people not to make a mess but no one listens to her.  As the crows gets bigger, fights break out.  There are sounds of war and explosions rock the Mother’s meticulously cared-for home..  Him can only smile and shrug while his visitors trash the house.  The more the Mother complains, the more cruelly she’s treated by the crowds.

Among those who show up are the Man (Ed Harris) and the Woman (Michelle Pfeiffer).  They have two teenage sons who have developed a dangerous rivalry.  Him seems to be very concerned with them but the Mother just wants them all to leave.  Once they finally do leave, Him is inspired to write his greatest work which, of course, just leads to more people showing up.  It’s a dangerous cycle….

I could actually relate to what the Mother was going through.  I tend to be a little bit on the neat side, which is a polite way of saying that I’m obsessed with keeping the house clean and tidy.  Nothing annoys me more than when a stranger comes in and drags dirt or leaves or whatever across a freshly vacuumed carpet.  When Jennifer Lawrence was reduced to begging people to just make the most basic effort towards not messing up the house, I totally sympathized with her.  Jennifer Lawrence yells so much in this movie that she actually starts to lose her voice in a few scenes.  I could relate.

Of course, Jennifer Lawrence is not just playing a homeowner who doesn’t want her house to get trashed.  And Bardem isn’t just playing a poet.  As you probably already guessed, Bardem is God and Jennifer Lawrence is the Earth and Ed Harris and Michelle Pfieffer are a surprisingly old version of Adam and Eve.  The entire film is a biblical allegory and it all gets a bit heavy-handed.  Aronofsky has said that the film was a result of “anger and anguish” but it’s obvious that all of that anger and anguish prevented him from considering that mother! would have worked better as a 15-minute short film than a two-hour epic.  It doesn’t take long to figure out what’s going on and the film occasionally gets almost embarrassingly obvious in its attempt to push it metaphor.  Aronofsky, at times, seems to think that his film is more enigmatic than it actually is.

Still, despite the fact that the film goes on for way too long and is never quite as much of a mindscrew as Aronofsky seems to think that it is, you have to admire not only the courage of Aaronofsky but also the dedication of Jennifer Lawrence.  This film was not the first high profile Jennifer Lawrence film to not be a hit with audiences (Passengers wasn’t exactly beloved) but it is the one that’s most often cited whenever anyone writes an article about why Jennifer Lawrence’s star is a bit dimmer today than it was back in the days of The Hunger Games.  Undoubtedly, some people did go to the film expecting to see a “typical” Jennifer Lawrence film, just to suddenly be confronted with Javier Bardem ripping her heart out of her chest.  But, at the same time, you have to appreciate a star who is willing to take a chance and that’s what Lawrence did her, lending her star power to a project that was thoroughly out of the mainstream.  Both Aronofsky and Jennifer Lawrence took a chance with mother! and, even if the film is not quite the triumph that some viewers may want it to be, you still respect them for having done so.

Previous Icarus Files:

  1. Cloud Atlas
  2. Maximum Overdrive
  3. Glass
  4. Captive State