Well, the year’s almost over so it’s time for me to make my final prediction as to who and what will be nominated on January 22nd.
Jay Kelly and Wicked: For Good certainly don’t feel like locks right now but I’m going to pick them anyway. Wicked: For Good’s strong showing with the Oscar short lists would seem to indicate that it has some support. Jay Kelly, I’m picking because it’s about acting and the Actors’ Branch is the biggest branch of the Academy. I nearly gave the spot to Avatar: Fire and Ash but that film hasn’t quite made the impression that the previous two Avatars made. That said, I certainly wouldn’t be shocked to see either Wicked: For Good or Jay Kelly replaced by Avatar: Fire and Ash when the actual nominations are announced.
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Best Picture
Frankenstein
Hamnet
It Was Just An Accident
Marty Supreme
One Battle After Another
Sentimental Value
Sinners
Train Dreams
Wicked: For Good
Best Director
Paul Thomas Anderson for One Battle After Another
Ryan Coogler for Sinners
Jafar Panahi for It Was Just An Accident
Josh Safdie for Marty Supreme
Chloe Zhao for Hamnet
Best Actor
Timothee Chalamet in Marty Surpeme
Leonardo DiCaprio in One Battle After Another
Ethan Hawke in Blue Moon
Michael B. Jordan in Sinners
Wagner Moura in The Secret Agent
Best Actress
Jessie Buckley in Hamnet
Rose Byrne in If I Had Legs I Would Kick You
Chase Infiniti in One Battle After Another
Emma Stone in Bugonia
Eva Victor in Sorry Baby
Best Supporting Actor
Benicio Del Toro in One Battle After Another
Jacob Elordi in Frankenstein
Paul Mescal in Hamnet
Sean Penn in One Battle After Another
Stellan Skarsgard in Sentimental Value
Best Supporting Actress
Ariana Grande in Wicked: For Good
Regina Hall in One Battle After Another
Inga Ibsdotter Lilleaas in Sentimental Value
Amy Madigan in Weapons
Teyana Taylor in One Battle After Another
Through the Shattered Lens 