Lisa Marie’s Oscar Predictions For November


I guess the question right now is whether or not Wicked: For Good will receive a Best Picture nomination.  Tradition would seem to dictate that, like The Lord of the Rings films and the Dune films, Wicked: For Good would get a nomination to go along with the first part of the story.  However, the reviews of Wicked: For Good have not been particularly good.

That said, those reviews have not had much effect when it comes to the film’s box office.  And that’s why I think, despite bad reviews, Wicked: For Good will be nominated.  I don’t think it’s going be quite the Oscar powerhouse that some were expecting but it will still, at the very least, be nominated.  It’s too big to fail at this point.

Here are my review for November.  Click here for my April and May and June and July and August and September and October predictions!

Best Picture

Avatar: Fire and Ash

Frankenstein

Hamnet

Jay Kelly

Marty Supreme

One Battle After Another

Sentimental Value

Sinners

Train Dreams

Wicked For Good

Best Director

Paul Thomas Anderson for One Battle After Another

Ryan Coogler for Sinners

Josh Safie for Marty Supreme

Joachim Trier for Sentimental Value

Chloe Zhao for Hamnet

Best Actor

Timothee Chalamet in Marty Supreme

George Clooney in Jay Kelly

Joel Edgerton in Train Dreams

Ethan Hawke in Blue Moon

Wagner Moura in The Secret Agent

Best Actress

Jessie Buckley in Hamnet

Cynthia Erivo in Wicked For Good

Kate Hudson in Song Sung Blue

Renate Reinsve in Sentimental Valure

Amanda Seyfried in The Testament of Ann Lee

Best Supporting Actor

Benicio del Toro in One Battle After Another

Paul Mescal in Hamnet

Sean Penn in One Battle After Another

Adam Sandler in Jay Kelly

Stellan Skarsgard in Sentimental Value

Best Supporting Actress

Elle Fanning in Sentimental Value

Ariana Grande in Wicked For Good

Regina Hall in One Battle After Another

Inga Ibsdotter Lilleaas in Sentimental Value

Amy Madigan in Weapons

Lisa Marie’s Oscar Predictions For October


Really?  Oscar predictions on Halloween night?

Eh.  Why not?

Click here for my April and May and June and July and August and September predictions!

Best Picture

Hamnet

It Was Just An Accident

Jay Kelly

Marty Supreme

One Battle After Another

Sentimental Value

Sinners

The Smashing Machine

Train Dreams

Wicked For Good

Best Director

Paul Thomas Anderson for One Battle After Another

Ryan Coogler for Sinners

Benny Safdie for The Smashing Machine

Joachim Trier for Sentimental Value

Chloe Zhao for Hamnet

Best Actor

Timothee Chalamet in Marty Supreme

Joel Edgerton in Train Dreams

Ethan Hawke in Blue Moon

Dwayne Johnson in The Smashing Machine

Wagner Moura in The Secret Agent

Best Actress

Jessie Buckley in Hamnet

Cynthia Erivo in Wicked For Good

Kate Hudson in Song Sung Blue

Renate Reinsve in Sentimental Valure

Sydney Sweeney in Christy

Best Supporting Actor

Benicio del Toro in One Battle After Another

Jacob Elordi in Frankenstein

Paul Mescal in Hamnet

Adam Sandler in Jay Kelly

Stellan Skarsgard in Sentimental Value

Best Supporting Actress

Emily Blunt in The Smashing Machine

Elle Fanning in Sentimental Value

Ariana Grande in Wicked For Good

Regina Hall in One Battle After Another

Amy Madigan in Weapons

One Battle After Another Leads The Gotham Nominations


For better or worse, Awards Season started today with the announcement of the Gotham nominations.  The Gothams are supposed to honor independent films, though the line between studio and independent is now so thin that it’s sometimes difficult to tell which is which.

In the past, the Gothams honored obscure films and also low-budget films that captured the public’s imagination.  This year, they gave the majority of their nominations to One Battle After Another, a big-budget film that starred a slew of Hollywood heavyweights.  Meanwhile, Sinners, a genuinely independent feature, received one nomination.

It’s debatable how much of a precursor the Gothams are.  They’re a critic-selected award and it’s always the guild awards that serve as the best precursors.  Still, it always helps to be mentioned somewhere.

Here are the 2025 Gotham nominations!

Best Feature
Bugonia
East of Wall
Hamnet
If I Had Legs I’d Kick You
Lurker
One Battle After Another
Sorry, Baby
The Testament of Ann Lee
Train Dreams

Best Director
Mary Bronstein – If I Had Legs I’d Kick You
Jafar Panahi – It Was Just an Accident
Kelly Reichardt – The Mastermind
Paul Thomas Anderson – One Battle After Another
Oliver Laxe – Sirât

Outstanding Lead Performance
Jessie Buckley – Hamnet
Lee Byung-hun – No Other Choice
Rose Byrne – If I Had Legs I’d Kick You
Sopé Dìrísù – My Father’s Shadow
Ethan Hawke – Blue Moon
Jennifer Lawrence – Die My Love
Wagner Moura – The Secret Agent
Josh O’Connor – The Mastermind
Amanda Seyfried – The Testament of Ann Lee
Tessa Thompson – Hedda

Outstanding Supporting Performance
Benicio Del Toro – One Battle After Another
Jacob Elordi – Frankenstein
Inga Ibsdotter Lilleaas – Sentimental Value
Indya Moore – Father Mother Sister Brother
Wunmi Mosaku – Sinners
Adam Sandler – Jay Kelly
Andrew Scott – Blue Moon
Alexander Skarsgård – Pillion
Stellan Skarsgård – Sentimental Value
Teyana Taylor – One Battle After Another

Best Original Screenplay
If I Had Legs I’d Kick You
It Was Just an Accident
The Secret Agent
Sorry, Baby
Sound of Falling

Best Adapted Screenplay
No Other Choice
One Battle After Another
Pillion
Preparation for the Next Life
Train Dreams

Best International Feature
It Was Just an Accident
No Other Choice
Nouvelle Vague
Resurrection
Sound of Falling

Best Documentary Feature
2000 Meters to Andriivka
BLKNWS: Terms & Conditions
My Undesirable Friends: Part I – Last Air in Moscow
The Perfect Neighbor
Put Your Soul on Your Hand and Walk

Breakthrough Director
Constance Tsang – Blue Sun Palace
Carson Lund – Eephus
Sarah Friedland – Familiar Touch
Akinola Davies Jr. – My Father’s Shadow
Harris Dickinson – Urchin

Breakthrough Performer
A$AP Rocky – Highest 2 Lowest
Sebiye Behtiyar – Preparation for the Next Life
Chase Infiniti – One Battle After Another
Abou Sangaré – Souleymane’s Story
Tonatiuh – Kiss of the Spider Woman

Lisa Marie’s Oscar Predictions For September


As September comes to a close, the Oscar picture is clearing up a bit.  The early word on some films is very strong.  The new Paul Thomas Anderson film is being massively hyped online, though I get a Killers of the Flower Moon/Brutalist vibe from a lot of the coverage.  Meanwhile, films that were once seen as surefire contenders are falling to the wayside.

And, with that inspiring introduction out of the way, here are my predictions for September.

Click here for my April and May and June and July and August predictions!

Best Picture

Hamnet

Jay Kelly

Marty Supreme

One Battle After Another

The Secret Agent

Sentimental Value

Sinners

The Smashing Machine

Springsteen: Deliver Me From Nowhere

Wicked For Good

Best Director

Paul Thomas Anderson for One Battle After Another

Ryan Coogler for Sinners

Benny Safdie for The Smashing Machine

Joachim Trier for Sentimental Value

Chloe Zhao for Hamnet

Best Actor

Daniel Day-Lewis in Anemone

Leonard Di Caprio in One Battle After Another

Dwayne Johnson in The Smashing Machine

Wagner Moura in The Secret Agent

Jeremy Allen White in Springsteen: Deliver Me From Nowhere

Best Actress

Jessie Buckley in Hamnet

Cynthia Erivo in Wicked For Good

Jennifer Lawrence in Die My Love

Renate Reinsve in Sentimental Valure

Julia Roberts in After The Hunt

Best Supporting Actor

Paul Mescal in Hamnet

Sean Penn in One Battle After Another

Adam Sandler in Jay Kelly

Stellan Skarsgard in Sentimental Value

Jeremy Strong in Springsteen: Deliver Me From Nowhere

Best Supporting Actress

Emily Blunt in The Smashing Machine

Zooey Deutch in Nouvelle Vague

Elle Fanning in Sentimental Value

Ariana Grande in Wicked For Good

Emily Watson in Hamnet

Lisa Marie’s Way Too Early Oscar Predictions For August


As August comes to a close, the Oscar picture is clearing up a bit due to the festivals.  The early word on some films is very strong.  Meanwhile, films that were once seen as surefire contenders are falling to the wayside.

And, with that inspiring introduction out of the way, here are my predictions for August.

Click here for my April and May and June and July predictions!

Best Picture

After the Hunt

F1

Hamnet

Jay Kelly

Marty Supreme

Sentimental Value

Sinners

The Smashing Machine

Springsteen: Deliver Me From Nowhere

Wicked For Good

Best Director

Ryan Coogler for Sinners

Benny Safdie for The Smashing Machine

Josh Safdie for Marty Supreme

Joachim Trier for Sentimental Value

Chloe Zhao for Hamnet

Best Actor

Will Arnett in Is This Thing On?

Daniel Day-Lewis in Anemone

Ethan Hawke in Blue Moon

Dwayne Johnson in The Smashing Machine

Jeremy Allen White in Springsteen: Deliver Me From Nowhere

Best Actress

Jessie Buckley in Hamnet

Cynthia Erivo in Wicked For Good

Jennifer Lawrence in Die My Love

Renate Reinsve in Sentimental Valure

Julia Roberts in After The Hunt

Best Supporting Actor

Paul Mescal in Hamnet

Adam Sandler in Jay Kelly

Andrew Scott in Blue Moon

Stellan Skarsgard in Sentimental Value

Jeremy Strong in Springsteen: Deliver Me From Nowhere

Best Supporting Actress

Emily Blunt in The Smashing Machine

Zooey Deutch in Nouvelle Vague

Elle Fanning in Sentimental Value

Ariana Grande in Wicked For Good

Gwyneth Paltrow in Marty Supreme

Lisa Marie’s Way Too Early Oscar Predictions For July


As July comes to a close, the Oscar picture is still pretty fuzzy.  To be honest, it’s hard to get that excited about any of the contenders that have been mentioned.  It all pretty much sounds like more of the same, with the exception of Sinners.

Anyway, with that inspiring introduction out of the way, here are my predictions for July.

Click here for my April and May and June predictions!

Best Picture

F1

It Was Just An Accident

Jay Kelly

Nouvelle Vague

Nuremberg

The Secret Agent

Sentimental Value

Sinners

The Smashing Machine

Wicked For Good

Best Director

Jon M. Chu for Wicked For Good

Ryan Coogler for Sinners

Richard Linklater for Nouvelle Vague

Jafar Panahi for It Was Just An Accident

Joachim Trier for Sentimental Value

Best Actor

George Clooney in Jay Kelly

Dwayne Johnson in The Smashing Machine

Michael B. Jordan in Sinners

Wagner Moura in The Secret Agent

Jeremy Allen White in Deliver Me From Nowhere

Best Actress

Cynthia Erivo in Wicked For Good

Jennifer Lawrence in Die My Love

Renate Reinsve in Sentimental Valure

Julia Roberts in After The Hunt

June Squibb in Eleanor The Great

Best Supporting Actor

Miles Caton in Sinners

Russell Crowe in Nuremberg

Adam Sandler in Jay Kelly

Stellan Skarsgard in Sentimental Value

Christoph Waltz in Frankenstein

Best Supporting Actress

Emily Blunt in The Smashing Machine

Ayo Edebiri in After The Hunt

Elle Fanning in Sentimental Value

Ariana Grande in Wicked For Good

Jennifer Lopez in Kiss of the Spider Woman

The Films of 2025: Happy Gilmore 2 (dir by Kyle Newacheck)


I love 1996’s Happy Gilmore and, over the past few months, I have very much been looking forward to the release of the long-delayed sequel, Happy Gilmore 2.  Still, I was a bit concerned when I opened the film on Netflix and discovered that the sequel had a nearly two-hour running time.  (The original clocked in at an efficient and fast-paced 90 minutes.)  Comedy is all about timing and, in general, shorter is funnier.  I know that Judd Apatow and Adam McKay might disagree with me on that but let’s be honest.  For all of the acclaim that it was met with, when was the last time you actually felt any desire to rewatch The King of Staten Island?  For that matter, if you have to pick between Anchorman or Anchorman 2, which are you going to pick?  The 90 minute original or the sequel that takes more than two hours to tell essentially the same story?

Having now watched the film, I can say that Happy Gilmore 2 does run a bit too long.  There are a few sequences that could have been trimmed without hurting the film.  I can also say that I thoroughly enjoyed the film.  I laughed more often than not.  It’s a funny film but it’s also a surprisingly touching one.

Taking place 29 years after the first film, Happy Gilmore 2 features an older and slightly more mature Happy.  It also features an older and slightly more mature Adam Sandler and, to its credit, the film acknowledges that.  It doesn’t try to convince us that Sandler and Gilmore are still the young hell-raisers that they once were.  (Happy’s Happy Place has changed considerably.)  I’ve often written that there are two Adam Sandlers.  There’s the youngish Sandler who made silly and often stupid films where he basically just hung out with his friends and didn’t seem to put much effort into anything.  That’s the Sandler who has won multiple Razzie awards.  And then there’s the older and wiser Adam Sandler, the sad-eyed character actor who gives sensitive performances as world-weary characters.  This is the Adam Sandler who seems to be overdue for an Oscar nomination.  If an alien came to Earth and only watched Adam Sandler’s serious films, they would probably think he was one our most-honored actors.  While Happy Gilmore 2 is definitely a comedy, it still features quite a bit more of the serious Sandler than I was expecting.

At the start of the movie, Happy is not in a happy place.  His grandmother has passed away.  His wife, Virginia, was killed by an errant tee shot.  He has four rambunctious sons and a daughter, Vienna (played by Sunny Sandler, who was so good in You Are So Not Invited To My Bat Mitzvah).  After Virginia’s death, Happy gave up golf.  He lost his money.  He lost his grandmother’s house.  Now, he’s working in a grocery store and he’s an almost forgotten figure.  He’s also an alcoholic, keeping bottles of liquor hidden around the house.  (A tiny liquor bottle is hidden in the cuckoo clock.)  And while this film is certainly not Uncut Gems or even The Meyerowitz Stories, Sandler still does a good job of capturing the reality of Happy’s depression.  There’s a true sense of melancholy running through the film’s first hour, as Happy returns to golf to try to make enough money to pay for Vienna to attend a prestigious dance academy.  The second hour, in which Happy leads a team of pro golfers against a team of “extreme” athletes is far more goofier but Happy’s love for his family is a theme that runs through the entire film.

Aging is the other theme that runs through the film.   Forced to play with three younger players (including Eric Andre and Margaret Qualley) at a local golf course, the rusty Happy grimaces when he hears one of them say, “Is he trying to do the Happy Gilmore swing?”  When Happy rejoins the PGA, he discovers that all of the younger players now hit the ball as hard as he used to.  An obnoxious tech bro (Benny Safdie) wants to start a new, extreme golf league, one that will “continue the revolution” that Happy started.  Happy finds himself defending traditional golf and it’s an acknowledgement that both Gilmore and Adam Sandler have grown up and have come to appreciate that not everything needs to change.  Sometimes, you just want to play a nice round of golf on a pretty course without having to deal with the sensory overload of the 2020s.

It’s a funny movie.  Even when he’s playing it straight, Sandler still knows how to deliver a funny line.  Ben Stiller returns as Hal L., who is now an addiction recovery specialist.  (His techniques include ordering people to wash his car.)  Christopher McDonald also returns as Shooter McGavin, having escaped from a mental asylum and now fighting, alongside Happy, to save the game that they both love.  As someone who always felt that Shooter kind of had every right to be upset during the first film, I was happy to see him get a bit of redemption.  Several professional golfers appear as themselves.  A running joke about Scottie Scheffler getting arrested and then forcing all of his cellmates to watch golf made me laugh a lot more than I was expecting it too.

The sequel is full of shout-outs to the first film.  A fight in a cemetery reveals that everyone who died during and after the first film just happens to have a gravestone and it was actually kind of a nice tribute.  (Even the “Get Me Out Of Here” Lady gets a headstone.)  It’s a sequel that truly appreciates and values the legacy and the fans of the first film.  It’s also a sequel that seems to truly love the game of golf, which is not necessarily something that could be said about the first film.

Happy Gilmore 2 is a worthy sequel, even if it is a bit long.  It made me laugh but, at the same time, it was hard not to be touched by the obvious love that Happy had for his family and that they had for him.  (It didn’t hurt that Happy’s daughter was played by Sandler’s daughter.)  In the first film, Happy played golf for his grandmother.  In the second film, he returns to the game for his daughter.  It’s all about family, as Adam Sandler’s unexpectedly heartfelt performance makes clear.

Scene That I Love: Bob Barker Beats Up Happy Gilmore


Happy Gilmore 2, the sequel to my favorite golf movie, is currently available on Netflix.  I’ll be watching it later today.  I have no idea if it’s any good or not.  I’m hoping for the best, though.

Anyway, this seems like a good time to share the best scene from the original Happy Gilmore.  In this scene, Happy and Bob Barker team up for a celebrity tournament.  It does not go well.  Reportedly, Barker initially turned down this cameo and only changed his mind after he was assured that he would win the fight.

Scenes I Love: Philip Seymour Hoffman in Punch-Drunk Love


Today would have been Philip Seymour Hoffman’s 58th birthday.

Here he is in 2002’s Punch-Drunk Love, yelling at Adam Sandler and showing how a good actor can make the simple act of yelling compelling.