The nominations for the 2023 SAG Awards were announced earlier today and there were a few interesting results to be found.  The SAG Awards tend to be a pretty strong sign of what’s in the Oscar conversation, if just because the Actor’s Branch is the biggest voting bloc in the Academy so being snubbed (or unexpectedly mentioned) here can actually mean something.

Is that bad news for Charles Melton?  Melton has been dominating the critics awards for his performance in May/December but he was not nominated for a SAG Award.  In fact, no one from May/December was nominated, indicating that the film may not be the Oscar favorite that some assumed.

The Color Purple has not really figured that much into the critics awards but SAG obviously liked it.  For some reason, I was expecting The Holdovers to get an ensemble nomination.  It didn’t but Paul Giamatti and Da’Vine Joy Randolph still received individual nominations.

(In retrospect, I’m not sure why I was so convinced The Holdovers — which does not have the type of huge cast that is usually honored with the ensemble award — would get an ensemble nomination but oh well.  It happens!)

Willem DaFoe — and not Mark Ruffalo — was nominated for Poor Things.

It’s rare that any precursor ever lines up 100% with the actual Oscar nominations.  But SAG is one of the strongest precursors around so today (especially with the DGA film nominations coming out later) is good day to adjust your predictions.

OUTSTANDING PERFORMANCE BY A CAST IN A MOTION PICTURE
American Fiction
Barbie
The Color Purple
Killers of the Flower Moon
Oppenheimer

OUTSTANDING PERFORMANCE BY A FEMALE ACTOR IN A LEADING ROLE
Annette Bening – Nyad
Lily Gladstone – Killers of the Flower Moon
Carey Mulligan – Maestro
Margot Robbie – Barbie
Emma Stone – Poor Things

OUTSTANDING PERFORMANCE BY A MALE ACTOR IN A LEADING ROLE
Bradley Cooper – Maestro
Colman Domingo – Rustin
Paul Giamatti – The Holdovers
Cillian Murphy – Oppenheimer
Jeffrey Wright – American Fiction

OUTSTANDING PERFORMANCE BY A FEMALE ACTOR IN A SUPPORTING ROLE
Emily Blunt – Oppenheimer
Danielle Brooks – The Color Purple
Penelope Cruz – Ferrari
Jodie Foster – Nyad
Da’Vine Joy Randolph – The Holdovers

OUTSTANDING PERFORMANCE BY A MALE ACTOR IN A SUPPORTING ROLE
Sterling K. Brown – American Fiction
Willem Dafoe – Poor Things
Robert De Niro – Killers of the Flower Moon
Robert Downey Jr. – Oppenheimer
Ryan Gosling – Barbie

OUTSTANDING ACTION PERFORMANCE BY A STUNT ENSEMBLE IN A MOTION PICTURE
Barbie
Guardians of the Galaxy Vol. 3
Indiana Jones and the Dial of Destiny
John Wick: Chapter 4
Mission: Impossible – Dead Reckoning Part One

OUTSTANDING PERFORMANCE BY A MALE ACTOR IN A TELEVISION MOVIE OR LIMITED SERIES
Matt Bomer – Fellow Travelers
Jon Hamm – Fargo
David Oyelowo – Lawmen: Bass Reeves
Tony Shalhoub – Mr. Monk’s Last Case: A Monk Movie
Steven Yeun – Beef

OUTSTANDING PERFORMANCE BY A FEMALE ACTOR IN A TELEVISION MOVIE OR LIMITED SERIES
Uzo Aduba – Painkiller
Kathryn Hahn – Tiny Beautiful Things
Brie Larson – Lessons in Chemistry
Bell Powley – A Small Light
Ali Wong – Beef

OUTSTANDING PERFORMANCE BY AN ENSEMBLE IN A COMEDY SERIES
Abbott Elementary
Barry
The Bear
Only Murders in the Building
Ted Lasso

OUTSTANDING PERFORMANCE BY A MALE ACTOR IN A COMEDY SERIES
Brett Goldstein – Ted Lasso
Bill Hader – Barry
Ebon Moss-Bachrach – The Bear
Jason Sudeikis – Ted Lasso
Jeremy Allen White – The Bear

OUTSTANDING PERFORMANCE BY A FEMALE ACTOR IN A COMEDY SERIES
Alex Borstein – The Marvelous Mrs. Maisel
Rachel Brosnahan – The Marvelous Mrs. Maisel
Quinta Brunson – Abbott Elementary
Ayo Edebiri – The Bear
Hannah Waddingham – Ted Lasso

OUTSTANDING PERFORMANCE BY AN ENSEMBLE IN A DRAMA SERIES
The Crown
The Gilded Age
The Last of Us
The Morning Show
Succession

OUTSTANDING PERFORMANCE BY A MALE ACTOR IN A DRAMA SERIES
Brian Cox – Succession
Billy Crudup – The Morning Show
Kieran Culkin – Succession
Matthew Macfadyen – Succession
Pedro Pascal – The Last of Us

OUTSTANDING PERFORMANCE BY A FEMALE ACTOR IN A DRAMA SERIES
Jennifer Aniston – The Morning Show
Elizabeth Debicki – The Crown
Bella Ramsey – The Last of Us
Keri Russell – The Diplomat
Sarah Snook – Succession

OUTSTANDING ACTION PERFORMANCE BY A STUNT ENSEMBLE IN A DRAMA OR COMEDY SERIES
Ahsoka
Barry
Beef
The Last of Us
The Mandalorian