Well, the year’s almost over so it’s time for me to make my final prediction as to who and what will be nominated on January 22nd.

Jay Kelly and Wicked: For Good certainly don’t feel like locks right now but I’m going to pick them anyway.  Wicked: For Good’s strong showing with the Oscar short lists would seem to indicate that it has some support.  Jay Kelly, I’m picking because it’s about acting and the Actors’ Branch is the biggest branch of the Academy.  I nearly gave the spot to Avatar: Fire and Ash but that film hasn’t quite made the impression that the previous two Avatars made.  That said, I certainly wouldn’t be shocked to see either Wicked: For Good or Jay Kelly replaced by Avatar: Fire and Ash when the actual nominations are announced.

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Best Picture

Frankenstein

Hamnet

It Was Just An Accident

Marty Supreme

One Battle After Another

Sentimental Value

Sinners

Train Dreams

Wicked: For Good

Best Director

Paul Thomas Anderson for One Battle After Another

Ryan Coogler for Sinners

Jafar Panahi for It Was Just An Accident

Josh Safdie for Marty Supreme

Chloe Zhao for Hamnet

Best Actor

Timothee Chalamet in Marty Surpeme

Leonardo DiCaprio in One Battle After Another

Ethan Hawke in Blue Moon

Michael B. Jordan in Sinners

Wagner Moura in The Secret Agent

Best Actress

Jessie Buckley in Hamnet

Rose Byrne in If I Had Legs I Would Kick You

Chase Infiniti in One Battle After Another

Emma Stone in Bugonia

Eva Victor in Sorry Baby

Best Supporting Actor

Benicio Del Toro in One Battle After Another

Jacob Elordi in Frankenstein

Paul Mescal in Hamnet

Sean Penn in One Battle After Another

Stellan Skarsgard in Sentimental Value

Best Supporting Actress

Ariana Grande in Wicked: For Good

Regina Hall in One Battle After Another

Inga Ibsdotter Lilleaas in Sentimental Value

Amy Madigan in Weapons

Teyana Taylor in One Battle After Another